Should I Buy SQM? SQM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

71.480

1 Day change

0.93%

52 Week Range

86.130

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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BUY now. SQM just sold off ~6% to ~76.84 and is sitting right on first support (S1 ~76.91) after a major positive legal catalyst (Chile Supreme Court clearing the Codelco lithium deal through 2060). While short-term momentum is still bearish (negative/expanding MACD), the broader trend structure remains constructive (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), options positioning is call-skewed, and recent quarter growth was strong. For an impatient buyer, this dip into support is an attractive entry rather than waiting for a perfect reversal signal.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Sharp pullback (-5.88% regular session; post ~76.84) into key support. Despite today’s drop, moving averages remain bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), consistent with a broader uptrend/pullback setup. Momentum: MACD histogram -0.677 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is still building in the very near term. RSI: RSI_6 ~31.3 (near oversold), suggesting selling pressure is stretched and a bounce is plausible. Levels: Pivot ~81.09 is the near-term reclaim level; resistance at ~85.26 then ~87.84. Support is tight at ~76.91 with next support ~74.33.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Put-call ratios are call-leaning (OI PCR 0.81; Volume PCR 0.26), signaling bullish to neutral sentiment despite the price drop. Activity/Volatility: Options volume is extremely elevated (today vs 30D avg ~421%), indicating heightened event-driven positioning. Implied vol is very high (IV percentile ~95), consistent with the market pricing large near-term moves.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Major event-driven catalyst: The SQM–Codelco lithium unit deal was finalized after the Chilean Supreme Court dismissed an appeal, improving long-duration operating visibility in Chile through
Strategic collaboration: Ivanhoe Electric partnership for copper exploration with SQM funding ($9M initial) adds optionality and strengthens Chile resource strategy.
Sector backdrop per bullish analysts: Some banks expect improved lithium fundamentals and view recent pullbacks as opportunity (JPMorgan/Deutsche commentary).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Technical near-term pressure: MACD is negative and worsening, so the tape can stay heavy immediately after the drop.
Analyst caution on valuation/rally pricing: Multiple downgrades to Neutral (Goldman, Citi, Clarksons) argue the stock had been pricing in optimistic lithium assumptions.
Elevated implied volatility: The market is pricing big swings, often coinciding with choppy price action.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q3): Growth was strong and improving.

Revenue: 1.173B (+8.93% YoY)
Net Income: 178.4M (+35.75% YoY)
EPS: 0.62 (+34.78% YoY)
Gross Margin: 29.48% (up +13.04% YoY) Takeaway: Profitability and margins expanded meaningfully alongside revenue growth, supporting the bull case that fundamentals are not deteriorating.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed—big banks raised targets and stayed bullish in January, but several firms have downgraded to Neutral after the rally.

Bullish/pro view: JPMorgan (Overweight, PT raised to $93) and Deutsche Bank (Buy, PT $91) see a buying opportunity and improved outlook (including less overhang from the Codelco situation).
Cautious/bearish view: Clarksons downgraded to Neutral (PT $90). Citi and Goldman previously downgraded to Neutral citing valuation/expectations already priced in. Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros focus on lithium demand/price recovery potential and reduced structural overhang; cons focus on valuation, elevated expectations, and near-term choppiness.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Politicians/Congress/Influential trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds and insiders show Neutral activity with no significant recent trends.

SQM Should I Buy