SPIR Should I Buy
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SPIR is not a good buy right now. Despite a generally bullish moving-average structure, the stock is selling off (-4.88% to 11.5), momentum is fading (MACD histogram still >0 but contracting), and the latest quarter showed a severe revenue decline. With no Intellectia buy signals today and short-dated options flow leaning defensive (heavy put volume), the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer. Net: hold/avoid initiating a new position today.
Price/Trend: SPIR is down sharply in the regular session (11.5) and is trading below the key pivot (12.198), weakening the immediate trend. However, the broader trend still leans constructive as moving averages are stacked bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the larger uptrend may still be intact. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0168) but positively contracting, indicating upside momentum is decelerating rather than strengthening. RSI(6) at ~42.9 is neutral-to-soft, consistent with a pullback and not an oversold bounce setup. Levels: Near-term support is S1=11.041 (close to current price), then S2=10.326. Resistance is the pivot 12.198, then R1=13.356. Given the drop and position below pivot, the technical setup is more ‘wait for confirmation’ than ‘buy now’. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Technical backdrop still shows a bullish longer-term moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which can support rebounds if support holds.
Analyst support remains present (multiple Buys; H.C. Wainwright recently raised PT to $19).
Options open interest skew (PCR 0.
indicates comparatively bullish longer-term positioning.
Pattern-based projection in the provided dataset indicates upside skew over 1 week (+1.51%) and 1 month (+7.54%), though not high confidence.
Current tape is weak: -4.88% today and below the pivot (12.198), raising risk of a break toward S1 (11.
/ S2 (10.326).
Momentum is deteriorating: MACD still positive but contracting; RSI is soft/neutral rather than rebound-ready.
Options flow is near-term bearish: put volume dominates (put/call volume ratio 3.46), consistent with hedging/speculative downside.
No news in the last week: no obvious near-term catalyst to reverse the selloff.
Fundamental headwind: the latest quarter shows a sharp revenue contraction and margin pressure, which can keep a lid on valuation expansion until growth stabilizes.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to 12.67M, down -55.65% YoY (major growth deterioration). Losses narrowed (Net Income improved to -19.676M, +57.75% YoY improvement), and EPS improved to -0.61 (+22% YoY), but this improvement is occurring alongside steep revenue decline. Gross margin dropped to 36.65% (-17.71% YoY), indicating profitability quality is not improving in a clean way. Overall: operational improvement on losses, but the topline trend and margins are negative—weak support for an aggressive buy today.
Recent trend: Ratings are mixed but skew to Buy, with notable dispersion in targets. H.C. Wainwright initiated Buy ($14) on 2026-01-06 and then raised its target to $19 on 2026-01-23, signaling improving bullishness. Multiple firms kept Buy ratings but cut targets in late 2025 (Canaccord to $10.50; Stifel to $14), reflecting execution/guidance concerns. Alliance Global downgraded to Neutral with a $9 target (2025-12-23), citing skepticism about the path to cash-flow positivity. Wall Street pros: exposure to space-based intelligence demand, potential multi-year growth narrative, and several Buy ratings/raised target from Wainwright. Wall Street cons: credibility/execution risk after guidance/revenue recognition issues, uncertainty around reaching cash-flow breakeven timelines, and at least one downgrade with a materially lower target. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider activity are both reported as neutral with no significant recent trend.
