SPHR Should I Buy
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SPHR is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The primary reason is timing: momentum is not clean (MACD still negative), price is sitting just above the pivot (95.7) and below nearby resistance (99.5), and the pattern-based forward odds provided skew to downside over the next week. With no Intellectia buy signals today and earnings approaching (2026-02-23 pre-market), the risk/reward for an immediate entry is not attractive despite a supportive longer-term story and bullish analyst tone.
Trend/Momentum: Mixed-to-slightly-cautious near-term. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend is still constructive. However, MACD histogram is -0.499 (below zero) and only negatively contracting, which often means upside momentum is not fully rebuilt yet. RSI(6) ~50.6 is neutral, consistent with consolidation rather than a strong push. Key levels: Pivot 95.726 is the near-term line in the sand. A clean hold above it supports stabilization; a break below shifts focus to S1 91.952 then S2 89.62. Upside is capped by R1 99.5 then R2 101.832. Probabilistic near-term path (provided): Similar-pattern stats imply elevated downside risk (40% chance of -3.8% next day, -7.39% next week). That skew argues against chasing today.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
reinforce positive narrative.
Near-term technical timing: MACD remains negative and price is close to pivot support; downside pattern odds are unfavorable over the next week.
Event risk: Earnings soon (2026-02-23 pre-market) increases the chance of a sharp move; with options IV already elevated, the market is pricing uncertainty.
Fundamental risk to narrative: Any signs of Wizard of Oz “show decay”/seasonality or slowing demand would hit the core bull thesis.
Positioning/valuation risk (from analyst commentary): Some prior caution that the stock may have already priced in limited Oz decay and additional venues; that can amplify pullbacks on any disappointment.
Influential trading: No recent congress trading data available; no notable politician activity provided.
Latest reported quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue: 262.5M, down 18.3% YoY (clear top-line contraction vs prior year). Profitability: Net income improved YoY (loss narrowed; -101.2M, +114.2% YoY improvement), but still meaningfully negative. EPS: -2.80, down 5.1% YoY (still weak on a per-share basis). Margins: Gross margin 15.78, up sharply YoY (+469.7%), indicating better unit economics/operational mix even while revenue fell. Takeaway: Operational efficiency appears to be improving, but growth is not currently clean on a YoY basis; that makes the stock more sensitive to forward guidance and booking metrics at the next earnings.
Recent trend: Net-positive and strengthening into January 2026—multiple firms upgraded or reaffirmed Buy/Overweight while raising price targets (BTIG to Buy $110; Guggenheim raised to $136; Seaport upgraded back to Buy $106; Goldman raised PT to $98 and stays Buy; Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight $105; Wolfe reiterated Outperform with higher PT). One notable counterpoint was BofA staying Neutral even after raising PT (to $95), citing that the market may already be underwriting optimistic assumptions. Wall Street pros: (1) Strong demand indicators for Sphere experiences/residencies, (2) scalable multi-venue platform potential, (3) “catalyst-rich” path with more venue announcements possible. Wall Street cons: (1) Valuation/expectations risk after a rally, (2) demand decay/seasonality risk for the flagship show, (3) ongoing losses mean the story relies heavily on continued execution and forward bookings.
