SPG Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. SPG is in a strong uptrend, but it is extended/overbought near resistance (~193.6) and faces a near-term binary catalyst (Q4 earnings on Feb 2). With the stock already pushing above R1 and sentiment/positioning mixed, the risk-reward for buying today is not attractive versus waiting for either a pullback toward ~186 (pivot) / ~181 (S1) or a post-earnings reaction.
Trend is bullish but stretched. Moving averages are stacked bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram (+0.5) is above zero and expanding, confirming upside momentum. However, RSI(6) is very elevated at ~77.8, signaling an overbought/extended condition. Price (191.13) is above R1 (190.713) and approaching R2 (193.564), so upside is likely to be more incremental while downside mean-reversion risk is elevated. Key levels: support at Pivot 186.10, then S1 181.48; resistance at 193.56.
supports income-focused demand. Upcoming Q4 earnings (Feb 2 after hours) can act as a catalyst if FFO/revenue and guidance beat expectations. Insider activity is supportive: insiders are net buyers (buying amount +283.51% over the last month; 12 net buy transactions over 3 months per news). Short interest is low (~1.56%), reducing squeeze/forced-selling risk. Analyst tone has improved with multiple price-target raises and a notable upgrade to Buy (Deutsche Bank).
Near-term event risk: Q4 earnings on Feb 2 can trigger a sharp move; with the stock extended, a "good-but-not-great" print could still lead to profit-taking. Technical stretch: RSI is overbought and price is close to resistance (R2 ~193.6), limiting immediate upside. Pattern-based forward odds provided suggest weak near-term expectancy (model indicates ~-6.58% next week and ~-8.34% next month). Options implied volatility is elevated, implying the market is bracing for a larger move, which can work against buying at current levels.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$1.601B (+8.16% YoY), net income increased to ~$606.2M (+27.57% YoY), and EPS grew to 1.86 (+46.46% YoY). Margins were slightly lower (gross margin 81.58%, -0.89% YoY), but overall growth trends in earnings and profitability were strong for the quarter.
Recent trend is moderately improving: several firms raised price targets from mid-Nov 2025 through Jan 2026, and Deutsche Bank upgraded SPG to Buy (PT $205). However, a large portion of coverage remains Neutral/Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley Equal Weight PT $205; UBS Neutral PT $189; Mizuho Neutral PT $192), reflecting a "good company, less upside after the run" stance. Wall Street pros: strong fundamentals/occupancy backdrop implied by commentary, dividend growth, and scale advantages; cons: sector viewed by some as near peak fundamentals and the stock’s upside may be more limited at current levels. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
