SPFI Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Not a good buy right now. SPFI is technically in an uptrend and just reacted positively to earnings/acquisition news, but near-term setup looks riskier than reward for an impatient buyer: pattern-based stats point to elevated downside over the next week/month, and Intellectia has no strong timing signals today. I would hold off buying at $41.68 and only buy on a clear pullback toward support (~$40.06) or a clean breakout above ~$43.20.
Trend/momentum is constructive: moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), and MACD histogram is positive and expanding, supporting continuation. RSI(6) ~59.7 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Price is sitting just above the pivot (41.63), so it’s close to an inflection level. Key levels: Support S1 ~40.06 (then S2 ~39.08); Resistance R1 ~43.20 (then R2 ~44.18). With price extended on a post-news pop and the pivot nearby, the better risk/reward entry is closer to support or after a confirmed breakout above R1. Stock-pattern analogs provided are bearish near term (60% probability to -8% range over week/month), which argues against chasing today.
Q4 2025 earnings beat (GAAP EPS $0.90, +$0.05 vs expectations). Net interest margin reported at 4%, and loans held for investment increased by $91M to $3.14B (growth in multifamily and direct energy). Acquisition of BOH Holdings announced ($105.9M all-stock) with management projecting ~11% earnings accretion by 2027—an event-driven growth catalyst. Dividend continuity: $0.17 quarterly dividend authorized, 27th consecutive dividend.
Despite the EPS beat vs expectations, year-over-year profitability trends in the provided snapshot are negative (Net Income -7.53% YoY; EPS -6.25% YoY), which can cap valuation expansion until integration/synergies show up. Revenue slightly missed expectations (by ~$0.23M), suggesting not a clean top-line blowout. Acquisition/integration execution risk (BOH deal) and the possibility that near-term enthusiasm fades after the initial pop. Quant-style caution in news flow (monitor integration/future performance). Short-term statistical trend signal provided is bearish (higher probability of declines over next week/month), making today a less attractive chase point.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to $51.017M (+5.52% YoY), but Net Income fell to $15.254M (-7.53% YoY) and EPS fell to $0.90 (-6.25% YoY) in the snapshot. On the quarter’s narrative metrics, the bank posted a headline EPS beat and showed balance-sheet growth (loans +$91M to $3.14B) with a 4% net interest margin, supporting a growth story—but profitability YoY softness indicates the growth is not yet fully translating into higher bottom-line results.
Recent Street trend is improving: multiple price target raises in January 2026. Keefe Bruyette (Outperform) raised PT to $47 (from $46). Raymond James (Outperform) raised PT to $44 (from $42) citing the Houston expansion strategy via BOH. Piper Sandler raised PT to $45 (from $41) but remains Neutral. Wall Street pros view (pros): acquisition-led metro expansion, strong loan growth, and expense discipline supporting earnings. Cons: integration risk, mixed YoY earnings trend in the snapshot, and some firms staying neutral despite higher targets.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show Neutral activity with no notable recent trend.
