SPCE Should I Buy
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SPCE is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The trend is still bearish (downtrend moving averages + weakening momentum), there are no Intellectia buy signals to override the chart, fundamentals show declining revenue with deep losses, and the most recent notable analyst action stays Underweight with a lowered target. Unless you’re specifically trading a short-term oversold bounce, the data favors avoiding/new selling rather than buying today.
Price/Trend: SPCE is in a clear downtrend with bearish moving average stacking (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), which typically signals sellers remain in control. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.00357) and negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI: RSI_6 at ~30.6 is near oversold but still labeled “neutral” in the provided signal set; this supports the idea of a possible dead-cat bounce, but not a confirmed reversal. Levels: Pivot 3.057 is above current price (2.855), meaning the stock is trading below the pivot (bearish). Nearby support is S1 ~2.87 (very close, already being tested) and S2 ~2.754. Resistance levels to reclaim are 3.057 then 3.245. Pattern-based odds: The provided analog pattern stats suggest mild upside bias (60% chance of small gains), but the larger technical structure remains bearish and offers low confidence for a durable move.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
can produce short-lived bounce attempts.
on 2026-02-26 after hours could act as a catalyst for a sharp move (either direction) given high implied volatility.
Primary trend remains bearish: Strongly bearish moving averages plus worsening MACD reduce the probability that any bounce becomes a sustained uptrend.
Commercialization timing uncertainty: Morgan Stanley explicitly highlights renewed investor questions around commercialization timing—an ongoing overhang.
Dilution/financing overhang: The noted capital actions included selling common stock, and the company’s business profile suggests ongoing capital needs risk future dilution.
Options positioning mixed but OI leans defensive (put-heavy), consistent with cautious sentiment.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $365K, down 9.20% YoY (still extremely low scale). Profitability: Net income -$64.42M, down 13.58% YoY (losses deepening). EPS: -1.09, down 59.02% YoY. Overall: The quarter shows weak/declining top-line with substantial ongoing losses—no clear growth inflection evident in the provided snapshot.
Most recent update (2025-12-12): Morgan Stanley lowered the price target to $2.30 from $2.50 and maintained an Underweight rating. The rationale acknowledges improved debt runway into 2028, but emphasizes continued uncertainty around commercialization timing. Wall Street-style pros/cons view based on the data: Pros—runway extension reduces near-term balance-sheet pressure. Cons—commercialization timing risk remains central, losses persist, and the stock trades in a clear downtrend; net view is still negative (Underweight + target below current price).
