SPB Should I Buy
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SPB is not a good buy right now. Despite a still-bullish moving-average structure, momentum has turned down (MACD histogram negative and worsening) and the stock is sitting right around its pivot (~63.64), offering no clear edge for an immediate entry—especially with no Intellectia proprietary buy signals today. A better setup would be a cleaner dip-and-hold near support (61.72) or a breakout with follow-through above resistance (65.56).
Trend/structure is moderately bullish but short-term momentum is weakening. The moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend remains constructive. However, MACD histogram is -0.173 (below zero) and negatively expanding, signaling deteriorating momentum and elevated risk of a near-term fade. RSI(6) ~49 is neutral (no oversold bounce signal). Price is essentially on the pivot (63.638) with nearby levels: support S1 61.72 (then S2 60.535) and resistance R1 65.555 (then R2 66.74). With momentum soft and price at the pivot, risk/reward is not compelling for an impatient entry today.
on 2026-02-05 pre-market can act as a catalyst. Recent analyst commentary points to stabilization into FY26 and potential outperformance if pet ownership trends bottom and the tariff picture becomes clearer. Recent price target raises (Canaccord to $84; Wells Fargo to $
indicate improved confidence versus prior levels.
Near-term technical momentum is weakening (MACD negative and deteriorating) with no proprietary buy signals (AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no signal). Latest quarter showed revenue decline and gross margin contraction, which can cap upside if the market refocuses on core demand and profitability quality. FY26 outlook described as back-half weighted on EBITDA (per analyst note) can raise execution/timing risk. Options pricing is relatively expensive (high IV percentile), implying the market expects bigger swings and uncertainty into earnings.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue fell to $733.5M (-5.20% YoY), showing top-line pressure. Profitability on the bottom line improved sharply: Net income rose to $55.6M (+94.41% YoY) and EPS to 2.28 (+125.74% YoY), consistent with prior commentary that EPS benefited from favorable tax/lower share count. Gross margin declined to 34.98 (-6.07% YoY), a key negative because it suggests underlying margin pressure even as EPS surged.
Recent Wall Street trend is modestly improving: price targets were raised recently (Canaccord reiterated Buy and raised PT to $84 from $75; Wells Fargo maintained Equal Weight and raised PT to $62 from $55). Pros view: stabilization into FY26, clearer tariff backdrop, potential demand help from pet ownership/weather dynamics, and improved setup for outperformance if trends bottom. Cons view: FY26 improvement may be back-half weighted (timing risk), and recent results still showed sales/margin pressure even with strong EPS. Overall analyst stance is mixed-to-positive (one Buy with a much higher PT, one neutral/Equal Weight near the current price).
