SNOW Should I Buy
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SNOW is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The chart is in a clear downtrend (bearish MA stack and worsening MACD), and there are no Intellectia buy signals today to justify stepping in early. While the longer-term story (AI/data platform expansion) is intact and analysts are broadly positive, the current tape is weak and competitive-pressure headlines keep sentiment fragile. Best call: hold/avoid new buys until price reclaims key levels (back above ~199–209) or momentum turns.
Trend/structure is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms price is trading below key averages (downtrend). MACD histogram is negative (-0.545) and expanding lower, signaling downside momentum is still building. RSI(6) at ~25.3 indicates the stock is oversold/washed-out short term, which can produce bounces, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when momentum is still deteriorating. Key levels: immediate support sits near S2 ~192.07 (price 194.65 is close), with S1 ~198.51 now acting as overhead supply/resistance. Pivot resistance is ~208.93; a reclaim of ~199 first, then ~209 would be the earliest technical confirmation that sellers are losing control.
Analyst tone remains constructive: multiple Overweight/Outperform reiterations and an Argus upgrade to Buy with a $300 target cite an attractive entry after prior weakness and continued ~30% growth ambition. Company fundamentals show gross margin expansion (latest quarter gross margin ~67.77%, up YoY), consistent with improving efficiency. Secular tailwinds: enterprise AI infrastructure and platform consolidation can drive higher consumption over time; recent commentary expects customer spending on AI infrastructure to increase.
Near-term narrative risk: competitive pressure (notably Databricks) remains a recurring headline and can cap multiple expansion. Growth deceleration fears linger—product growth dipped below 30% in the referenced Q3 context and some targets have been trimmed (e.g., a recent cut from $310 to $275), which reinforces the idea of a tougher competitive/expectations environment. Profitability is still negative on a GAAP basis (net loss widened YoY in the latest quarter), and the technical trend is actively bearish, increasing the odds that any bounce fails quickly.
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$1.213B (+28.75% YoY), showing strong top-line growth. However, profitability weakened: net income was -$293.96M (down -9.35% YoY) and EPS was -0.87 (down -11.22% YoY). The bright spot is efficiency: gross margin improved to ~67.77% (+2.78% YoY), supporting the longer-term margin expansion narrative even though earnings remain negative.
Recent trend is net-positive with a few modest trims: Argus upgraded to Buy (PT $300). Multiple firms reiterated bullish stances (Overweight/Outperform) and raised targets after the quarter (e.g., JPMorgan to $268, Morgan Stanley to $299, Evercore to $300, Baird to $270), while Citi slightly lowered its PT (to $300 from $310) and at least one recent note cited competitive pressure and reduced PT to $275. Wall Street pros: durable demand signals (bookings/RPO), strong AI/platform expansion narrative, and improving margins. Cons: competitive intensity, consumption-model variability, and periodic growth “misses” versus elevated expectations. Hedge funds and insiders are both reported as Neutral, and there is no recent Congress trading data to confirm influential buying/selling.
