SNDR Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. SNDR is in a post-earnings selloff (regular -9.07% and was -18.78% pre-market), with momentum still bearish and no Intellectia buy signals to justify jumping in immediately. Given an impatient profile (unwilling to wait for a cleaner entry), this is a pass/hold rather than a buy today.
Trend/momentum: Near-term price action is sharply bearish (gap-down/post-earnings dump). MACD histogram is negative (-0.29) and expanding lower, confirming accelerating downside momentum. RSI(6) ~24 signals deeply oversold conditions (selloff may bounce), but oversold is not a buy signal by itself when MACD is worsening. Structure/levels: Despite the indicator note stating SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (bullish stack), today’s large drop likely threatens the short-term averages and shifts the practical trend bearish. Key levels: S1 ~25.79 is the nearest support; below that, S2 ~24.23 is next. Pivot ~28.30 is the first reclaim level; resistances at ~30.81 and ~32.37. Probability model provided suggests modest upside odds over 1D/1W/1M, but current momentum argues against chasing immediately after an earnings miss. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
with a $32 PT, and several shops raised targets in early Jan.
is deeply oversold (~24), raising odds of a reflex bounce if selling pressure exhausts near S1/S
Positioning: Put/call OI ratio is very low (call-heavy), which can support upside if fundamentals stabilize.
Earnings-driven reset: Q4 miss and commentary pointing to weak demand and rising costs, with intermodal underperformance specifically cited—this is an immediate fundamental catalyst for de-rating.
Profitability deterioration: Adjusted operating income down ~15% (per news) and EPS/net income down ~32% YoY (financial snapshot), which conflicts with the market’s prior recovery narrative.
Momentum risk: MACD is negatively expanding and the stock is in a sharp gap-down move—high risk of follow-through selling before a base forms.
No supportive flow catalysts: Hedge funds and insiders show Neutral/no notable recent trend; no congress trading data available; no noted politician/influential buying/selling in provided data.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to ~$1.40B (+4.52% YoY), but profitability fell materially: Net income ~$22.1M (-32.21% YoY) and EPS $0.13 (-31.58% YoY). Gross margin improved to 56.54 (+3.10% YoY), yet higher costs/segment pressure (intermodal) drove the earnings miss and weaker operating income. Overall: top-line growth without earnings leverage—negative for near-term upside until demand/cost pressures ease.
Recent trend: Early January saw multiple price target raises (Citi/Wells/Susquehanna/Stifel) and notable upgrades (Raymond James to Outperform; BofA to Buy on 1/9). However, the newest update (1/30) is a reversal: Citi cut PT to $27 from $31 and stayed Neutral after the weak quarter. Wall Street pros: (1) improving 2026 cyclical transport setup/capacity tightening narrative; (2) potential dedicated/intermodal strategic catalysts cited by bullish shops. Wall Street cons: (1) current demand softness and rising cost pressures; (2) intermodal weakness and earnings volatility; (3) mixed conviction overall (several Neutrals/Equal Weight) and fresh post-earnings target cuts starting to appear.
