SN Should I Buy
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SN is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is sitting right on key support (~117.72) with oversold conditions that can produce a short bounce, but the trend/momentum signals are still bearish (MACD worsening), hedge funds are selling aggressively, and the pattern-based forward odds point to more downside over the next week/month. I would wait for either (1) a clear reclaim of the 122.28 pivot or (2) a confirmed bounce off 117.7 with improving momentum—neither is present today.
Price/levels: SN at 117.83 is essentially on S1 support (117.721). A clean break below this level raises risk toward S2 (~114.904). Overhead, the first meaningful reclaim level is the pivot at 122.28, then resistance at 126.84. Momentum: MACD histogram is -1.236 and negatively expanding, signaling bearish momentum is strengthening (not bottoming yet). RSI: RSI(6) at ~28 is effectively oversold (below 30), which can support a reflex bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger without momentum stabilization. Trend structure: Moving averages are converging (no strong trend confirmation), but the current momentum/price location favors caution. Quant/pattern read: Similar candlestick-pattern cohort suggests ~-2.33% next week and ~-7.34% next month probabilities, reinforcing that the path of least resistance is still down.
set up a near-term event that can reverse momentum if results/guide beat.
Positioning risk: Very bullish call-heavy options positioning can unwind quickly if the stock fails to bounce.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue $1.630B (+14.28% YoY), Net Income $188.7M (+42.62% YoY), EPS $1.33 (+41.49% YoY). Margins: Gross margin 50.14% (+2.91% YoY), indicating improving profitability/operating quality. Bottom line: Fundamentals were strong and accelerating in Q3 2025, which is a key support for the longer-term bull case—however, today’s trade decision is being dominated by near-term technical weakness.
Recent trend: Net-positive and improving. Multiple firms raised price targets in Dec 2025–Jan 2026 (BofA to $145, JPM to $142, Canaccord to $140, Oppenheimer to $130, TD Cowen initiated Buy $135). Jefferies remains very bullish with a $175 target. The main counterpoint is Morgan Stanley at Equal Weight with a $110 target, noting domestic scanner sales deceleration vs prior quarter and vs Street. Wall Street pros: Product innovation strength, DTC growth, robust launch pipeline/backlog, and strong prior-quarter profitability. Wall Street cons: Concern about U.S. consumer softness and signs of deceleration in recent scanner data vs earlier quarters; valuation/expectations risk into earnings. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported neutral.
