Should I Buy SMWB? SMWB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Similarweb Ltd (SMWB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.690

1 Day change

6.83%

52 Week Range

17.640

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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SMWB is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer because price is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving-average stack) and options positioning is heavily put-skewed (bearish/defensive sentiment). While the stock is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~15) and could bounce short-term, the trend is still down and there is no proprietary buy signal today to justify chasing an immediate entry. Best action now: HOLD/WAIT rather than buy immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish. The moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a persistent downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0685) but “negatively contracting,” which suggests downside momentum is slowing (potential for a short-term relief bounce). Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 at ~15.11 is deeply oversold—this often precedes bounces, but it does not, by itself, confirm a trend reversal. Levels: Current price 5.25 is below S1 (5.319) and near S2 (5.047). Immediate support zone is ~5.05–5.32. Key upside reclaim level is the pivot at 5.758; resistance above that at ~6.20 (R1). Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats suggest a mild upward bias (about +1.08% next day, +3.16% next week, +4.31% next month), but these are modest and occur within a broader bearish trend.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Put-skew: Open interest put/call at 4.61 and volume put/call at 3.88 are extremely put-heavy, implying bearish sentiment and/or heavy hedging. Activity context: Today’s option volume is low in absolute terms (39 contracts) but shows a spike vs its 30-day average (26.17x), so the put-skew matters. Volatility: 30D IV ~52.19 vs historical vol ~49.82 (slightly elevated). IV rank/percentile are moderate (rank ~16.5, percentile ~43.4), suggesting options are not in an extreme pricing regime—sentiment (skew) is the standout, not overall IV expensiveness.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

plus slowing downside momentum (MACD contraction) can fuel a near-term rebound.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

No supportive near-term news flow in the past week; no fresh positive catalyst to reverse sentiment immediately.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $71.789M, +10.94% YoY (solid growth). Profitability: Net income -$4.331M, improved +68.78% YoY (loss narrowing materially). EPS: -$0.05, improved +66.67% YoY. Gross margin: 79.67%, +2.11% YoY (very strong and improving). Takeaway: Fundamentals are improving (growth + margin strength + shrinking losses), but the stock’s price action is not yet reflecting a confirmed turn.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating but reduced price targets twice.

2025-11-12: PT cut to $12 from $14 (Outperform kept); noted digital data demand strength and customer gains but conservative outlook.
2025-12-17: PT cut to $10 from $12 (Outperform kept); highlighted elongated sales cycles and LLM deal volatility, likely extending into FY26; expects 200–300 bps EBIT margin expansion in FY26. Wall Street pros: improving margins outlook, strong gross margin profile, ongoing demand/customer gains. Wall Street cons: sales-cycle elongation, LLM deal volatility, and reduced near-term visibility—reflected in repeated PT cuts.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SMWB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SMWB is 12.5 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 14 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 4.390

Low

Averages

12.5

High

Current: 4.390

Low

Averages

12.5

High

Oppenheimer

Ken Wong

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$12 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-12-17

Reason

Oppenheimer

Ken Wong

Price Target

$12 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-12-17

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Ken Wong lowered the firm's price target on Similarweb to $10 from $12 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says that during its meeting with VP of IR Rami Myerson, Oppenheimer was reminded of elongated sales cycles and LLM deal volatility which was the source of the wider Q4 range. The firm expects the dynamic to extend into FY26. Management expects 200bps-300bps of EBIT margin expansion in FY26 as internal sales re-enablement improves execution and retention, while R&D/G&A lines hold relatively stable. Overall headcount should remain about static.

Oppenheimer

Ken Wong

Outperform

downgrade

$14 -> $12

2025-11-12

Reason

Oppenheimer

Ken Wong

Price Target

$14 -> $12

2025-11-12

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Ken Wong lowered the firm's price target on Similarweb to $12 from $14 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says the company's Q3 results show continued digital data demand strength and customer gains. It sees conservatism in Similarweb's outlook and views its leading indicators as encouraging.

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SMWB Should I Buy

SMWB Should I Buy

Should You Buy Similarweb Ltd (SMWB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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