SMPL Should I Buy
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SMPL is not a good buy right now. The trend is decisively bearish (bearish moving averages and a worsening MACD), and the company’s latest quarter showed broad deterioration (revenue slightly down, but EPS/net income and gross margin sharply down). With no proprietary buy signals today and short-term pattern stats skewing negative over the next week/month, the higher-probability outcome is further downside or choppy weakness rather than an immediate rebound an impatient buyer can rely on.
Trend/structure is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a downtrend. Momentum is deteriorating with MACD histogram at -0.268 and negatively expanding (selling pressure increasing). RSI(6) at 17.26 is deeply oversold, which can trigger bounces, but in a strong downtrend oversold can persist and bounces often fail. Key levels: immediate support S1=18.883 (price 18.805 is already slightly below), next support S2=18.161. Overhead resistance/pivot is 20.052, then R1=21.221. A credible bullish shift would require reclaiming ~20.05 and stabilizing; until then, rallies are likely to be sold.
Technical oversold condition (RSI ~
can fuel a sharp dead-cat bounce if selling exhausts.
Bernstein reiterated Outperform/top-pick framing and raised PT to $31 (expects better near-term sales trends than consensus).
Call-heavy open interest (very low OI put/call) suggests some investors are positioned for upside over a longer horizon.
Downtrend remains intact (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD), and price is below/near key support (S1).
Latest quarter (2026/Q
showed margin and earnings pressure: gross margin down -16.42% YoY; net income -33.72% YoY; EPS -31.58% YoY.
Analyst caution exists: Deutsche Bank kept Hold and cut PT to $22; Mizuho cut PT (though still Outperform) citing Atkins distribution declines and cost inflation delaying EBITDA acceleration.
Short-horizon pattern/expectancy data points to continued weakness (next week/month biased negative).
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1. Revenue was essentially flat-to-down (-0.31% YoY to ~$340.2M), but profitability weakened materially: net income -33.72% YoY, EPS -31.58% YoY, and gross margin down to 30.94 (-16.42% YoY). This is a negative growth/quality signal because the business is not just slowing—profit conversion and margins are compressing, which typically caps near-term upside and makes dips harder to confidently buy immediately.
Recent analyst changes are mixed: (1) Bernstein (2025-12-19) raised PT to $31 from $29 and reiterated Outperform/top-pick ahead of Q1 2026 results, citing better scanner sales trends vs consensus. (2) Deutsche Bank (2025-12-15) cut PT to $22 from $26, maintained Hold. (3) Mizuho (2025-11-12) cut PT to $35 from $43 but kept Outperform, citing distribution declines and cost inflation delaying EBITDA acceleration. Wall Street pros: potential sales trend inflection and upside vs muted consensus. Cons: execution/margin pressure and distribution/cost headwinds are forcing multiple PT cuts and keeping at least one key shop on Hold. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available. Hedge/insider trends: neutral with no notable recent activity.
