Should I Buy SMBC? SMBC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc (SMBC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

65.500

1 Day change

-0.06%

52 Week Range

66.560

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. SMBC is in a broader bullish structure (stacked moving averages), but the near-term momentum is fading (MACD below zero) and price is sitting close to a pivot/resistance zone (pivot 62.44; R1 ~64.61). With no Intellectia buy signals today and a very put-heavy options open interest skew, the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer at ~62.62. Prefer to wait for a pullback toward support (60.28) before buying.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the intermediate trend remains up. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0543) and contracting, indicating weakening upside momentum / possible consolidation. RSI: RSI(6) at 56.2 is neutral—no oversold bounce setup. Levels: Pivot 62.44 is being tested; upside resistance at R1 64.61 then R2 65.95. Supports at S1 60.28 then S2 58.94. Near-term pattern bias (quant): Similar-pattern stats point to softer returns ahead (-4.85% next week expectation in the provided model), which argues against chasing at current levels.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment: Open interest is extremely put-skewed (put OI 261 vs call OI 27; OI put/call 9.67), which is typically bearish/defensive positioning. However, today’s options volume is 0 and 5/10-day average volume is also 0, suggesting the chain is illiquid and the sentiment signal may be stale or unreliable. Volatility: 30D IV ~39% vs historical vol ~33%, but IV percentile/rank are low (IV percentile 12.8; IV rank 9.28), implying options are relatively cheap versus its own history—useful mainly if you already have a directional view, not a standalone buy trigger here.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Fundamentals catalyst: Strong latest reported quarter with solid YoY growth (FY2026/Q2 revenue +10.0%, net income +23.3%, EPS +23.9%).
Analyst commentary catalyst: Stephens highlighted improving credit trends and a more balanced capital strategy (buybacks + M&A).
Positioning/flow: No negative insider or hedge fund trend flags in the provided data (both Neutral).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Earnings quality nuance from analysts: Mixed quarter characterization—less balance sheet growth than expected and net interest margin flat sequentially (per Piper/KBW notes).
Technical/price action: Momentum is weakening (MACD negative) while price is near a pivot/resistance band, making upside follow-through less favorable right now.
Options positioning: Very high put-heavy open interest skew (OI put/call 9.67), which can reflect caution.
News flow: No fresh news in the past week—no obvious near-term catalyst to force a breakout.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: FY2026/Q2. Revenue rose to 46.109M (+10.02% YoY). Net income increased to 17.992M (+23.30% YoY). EPS was 1.61 (+23.85% YoY). Overall, growth trends in earnings outpaced revenue, indicating improving profitability in the quarter.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Analysts nudged price targets higher after Q2 results.

Keefe Bruyette (2026-01-27): PT raised to $64 from $63; rating Market Perform (neutral tone).
Piper Sandler (2026-01-26): PT raised to $68 from $61; rating Neutral; flagged limited balance sheet growth and flat NIM.
Stephens (2026-01-23): PT raised to $73 from $71; rating Overweight; cited EPS beat, solid fees, improving credit, and balanced capital strategy. Wall Street pros: Improving credit/fees, stronger YoY earnings, and shareholder-friendly actions (repurchases) with optionality from M&A. Wall Street cons: Growth in the balance sheet appears softer than hoped and NIM is not expanding sequentially, which can cap near-term upside.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SMBC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SMBC is 61.75 USD with a low forecast of 60.5 USD and a high forecast of 63 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 65.540

Low

60.5

Averages

61.75

High

Current: 65.540

Low

60.5

Averages

61.75

High

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

maintain

$63 -> $64

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$63 -> $64

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Southern Missouri Bancorp to $64 from $63 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Better core margin was offset by a smaller balance sheet than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Piper Sandler

Neutral

maintain

$61 -> $68

2026-01-26

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$61 -> $68

2026-01-26

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Southern Missouri Bancorp to $68 from $61 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes results in Q2 were mixed given a 2% PPNR shortfall stemming from less balance sheet growth and a more limited net interest income rise due to some interest reversals that kept Southern's net interest margin flat sequentially. Piper bumps up its FY2026 EPS to $6.20 primarily to reflect Q2 upside and trims its FY2027 EPS to $6.80 given its more conservative operating expense assumptions.

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SMBC Should I Buy

SMBC Should I Buy

Should You Buy Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc (SMBC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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