SLG Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
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Not a good buy right now. Despite an earnings/FFO beat and strong Manhattan leasing headlines, SLG’s trend is still technically bearish, options flow is notably put-heavy (risk-off sentiment), insiders have been selling aggressively, and Wall Street has broadly been cutting price targets (including a fresh $43 target from Morgan Stanley below the current ~$45). For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner setup, the risk/reward is not attractive at this moment.
Price $45.05 is trading below a bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend. MACD histogram is negative (-0.413) but contracting, which suggests downside momentum is easing (potential stabilization) rather than a confirmed reversal. RSI(6) ~40.96 is weak/neutral-to-bearish (not oversold enough to signal a high-conviction bounce). Key levels: Support S1 ~43.73 then S2 ~42.27; Resistance/pivot ~46.08, then R1 ~48.44. With price below the pivot, SLG needs a reclaim of ~46.1 to improve the short-term trend; otherwise, a retest of ~43.7 is plausible.
Q4 2025 FFO beat by $0.02 driven by higher NOI and lower expenses; strong leasing: ~2.6M sq ft Manhattan leasing for 2026 and ~800k sq ft in Q4; management targets improved occupancy (94.8%) and guides same-store NOI growth of ~3.5% to 4.5% (forward-looking support); hedge funds are reported net buyers (buying amount up ~1107.83% over last quarter), suggesting some institutional appetite.
Technicals remain bearish (below key pivot; moving averages stacked bearishly). Options volume is heavily put-skewed (put/call volume 3.72), implying near-term caution. Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~1683.45% over last month). Large 2026 plan for ~$7B refinancing plus ~$2.5B dispositions signals balance-sheet/workout mode; multiple analysts flagged elevated payout ratio/dividend-cut risk. NYC political/tax headline risk (mayor focused on increasing taxes on wealthiest residents) is an overhang for NYC-centric REITs. Pattern-based short-horizon stats provided show modest near-term drift (-0.5% next week) despite better 1-month odds.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to ~$276.5M (+12.44% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: Net income fell to about -$104.6M (down ~1292.6% YoY) and EPS to -$1.37 (down ~1153.85% YoY). Gross margin also declined to ~23.35 (-20.9% YoY). In short: top-line improved, but earnings quality/profitability weakened materially, reinforcing why the market is focused on balance-sheet actions, payout ratio, and forward FFO guidance rather than GAAP earnings.
Recent Street trend is negative: multiple firms cut price targets through Dec 2025–Jan 2026 (Goldman to $42 Sell; Morgan Stanley to $43 Equal Weight; Deutsche Bank to $45 Hold; Mizuho to $47 Neutral; Truist to $47 Hold; Ladenburg to $50 Neutral). Bulls remain (BMO and Evercore Outperform with higher targets), but even supportive notes highlight disposition-driven earnings pressure and dividend-cut likelihood. Wall Street pros: discounted valuation, improving NYC office demand indicators, strong leasing momentum. Cons: limited earnings growth, high leasing capex/interest expense, refinancing/disposition execution risk, and payout ratio/dividend risk. No recent congress trading data was provided; no politician/influential-figure transactions are indicated in the dataset.
