SKYW Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. Despite strong, catalyst-heavy earnings/news (contract extensions and major debt reduction), the stock is selling off hard (-5% regular and pre-market) and is breaking below a key support area, with bearish momentum signals still expanding. For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner entry, the current tape argues for staying on the sidelines until price reclaims ~97–100 and momentum stabilizes.
Trend/momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a downtrend across long-, mid-, and short-term horizons. MACD histogram is negative (-0.135) and expanding lower, implying downside momentum is strengthening rather than fading. RSI(6)=39.8 is weak but not deeply oversold, so there’s room for further downside before a typical “snap-back” condition.
Levels: Current price 96.14 is below Pivot 100.48 and also below S1 96.94, signaling a breakdown of near-term support. Next support is S2 94.74; a failure there would likely extend the pullback. Resistance levels to regain are ~96.94 (S1 as new resistance), then 100.48 (pivot), and 104.03 (R1).
Pattern-based forward look: Similar-candlestick clustering implies ~50% chance of a small dip next day (-0.91%), but positive drift over 1 week (+1.48%) and 1 month (+4.75%). That bullish medium-term tendency conflicts with the currently bearish momentum—suggesting a potential rebound later, but the entry is currently poorly timed.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Q4 2025 results beat expectations (GAAP EPS 2.21 reported as a beat; revenue $1.02B, +8% YoY).
Multiyear contract extensions/agreements with major partners (United and Delta) improve revenue visibility for E175 flying.
Balance sheet improvement: meaningful debt reduction (about $1B over three years; ~$492M repaid cited for the period), which typically supports equity value over time.
Analyst PT provides upside: Citi initiated Neutral with $112 target (~16% above 96.14).
Post-earnings price action is decisively negative (down ~5%); suggests “sell the news” or guidance/forward-looking concerns not captured in headlines.
Profitability metrics weakened YoY: net income -6.4%, EPS -5.6%, and gross margin down ~5.3%—growth came with margin pressure.
Technical breakdown: price below pivot and below S1 with bearish MA stack and deteriorating MACD.
No supportive institutional/insider impulse indicated: hedge fund and insider trends both neutral; no notable conviction signal from these cohorts.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to ~$1.024B (+8.48% YoY), indicating solid top-line momentum. However, earnings quality softened: net income fell to ~$91.2M (-6.39% YoY) and EPS decreased to 2.21 (-5.56% YoY), alongside a gross margin decline to ~60.06 (-5.34% YoY). In short: good demand/revenue trajectory, but margin/earnings pressure remains the key near-term concern (even as debt reduction is a longer-term positive).
Recent Street view is limited in the provided data: Citi initiated coverage (2025-12-04) at Neutral with a $112 price target, citing a positive airline setup into an “elongated mid-cycle” starting 2026, but favoring supermajors for best risk/reward. Pros: implied upside vs current price and supportive industry cycle narrative. Cons: Neutral rating (not a bullish conviction call) and preference for larger carriers implies SKYW may be viewed as a secondary beneficiary. No recent upgrades/downgrades or multiple target revisions were provided.
