SKWD Should I Buy
-
$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
Loading...
Not a good buy right now. Despite strong fundamentals and very bullish Wall Street targets driven by the Apollo acquisition and specialty/E&S tailwinds, the stock’s near-term technical setup is bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5, MACD below zero) and the pattern-based forecast also leans negative over the next day/week/month. For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner entry, SKWD is a “hold / stay on the sidelines” today rather than a buy.
Price/Trend: SKWD is in a short-to-intermediate downtrend with bearish moving-average alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating rallies are more likely to be sold. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.0624 (below 0) and negatively contracting—bearish momentum is still present, though the contraction suggests downside momentum may be slowing. RSI: RSI_6 at 39.754 is near the lower end of neutral, consistent with weak momentum but not an extreme oversold reversal signal. Levels: Pivot 45.112 is just above the current price (~44.85). Near support: S1 43.836 then S2 43.048. Near resistance: R1 46.388 then R2 47.176. A decisive reclaim/hold above the pivot and then R1 would improve the near-term setup; failure risks a drift toward S1/S2. Quant/Pattern read-through: Similar-candlestick analogs imply a 90% chance of -1.16% next day, -1.35% next week, and -2.72% next month—reinforces that the immediate entry timing is unfavorable.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Apollo acquisition integration upside: Multiple analysts cite meaningful upside from the (accretive) Apollo Group acquisition; regulatory/minority approvals were secured and closing occurred Jan 1, 2026 (per news context).
E&S/specialty tailwinds: Company positioned in niche specialty lines benefiting from favorable macro dynamics per analyst commentary.
Upcoming earnings event: Q4 2025 earnings on Feb 23, 2026 (after close) and call Feb 24 could reset the narrative if results/guidance surprise to the upside.
Near-term technical weakness: Bearish MA stack and MACD below zero signal unfavorable timing for an impatient entry.
Event risk into earnings: Elevated IV and proximity to earnings can amplify downside on any miss or cautious commentary.
Reporting mismatch: Q4 and FY2025 results will exclude Apollo financials (acquisition closed Jan 1, 2026), which can create investor frustration if the market is expecting immediate consolidated benefits.
Softening P&C environment risk: Barclays explicitly references navigating a soft P&C market; if pricing weakens faster than expected, it can pressure growth/margins.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue 391.404M (+33.20% YoY) shows strong top-line expansion. Net income 45.901M (+25.18% YoY) and EPS 1.10 (+23.60% YoY) indicate solid profitability scaling, though earnings growth is modestly slower than revenue (worth monitoring for margin/combined-ratio pressure). Overall: Fundamentals are strong and consistent with the bullish analyst stance, but the market is currently not rewarding it with a bullish price trend.
Recent trend: Clear upward bias—multiple firms raised price targets in Dec 2025 and early Jan 2026 and maintained bullish ratings. Key updates: Barclays reinstated with Overweight and $63 (Jan 8, 2026). Keefe Bruyette reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $69 (Jan 6, 2026). Citizens JMP reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $80 (Dec 4, 2025). Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight and raised PT to $64 (Dec 4, 2025). Wall Street pros: Accretive Apollo acquisition, attractive specialty mix, continued E&S tailwinds, and pro forma guidance implying upside. Wall Street cons (implied): Integration/execution risk and a potentially softening P&C pricing environment. Influential buying/selling: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral (no significant recent trends). Congress trading: no recent data available.
