SJM Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. SJM is trading at $104.38, essentially at the latest lowered Wall Street target cluster ($105) and just under near-term resistance ($105.07). With no Intellectia buy signals, elevated implied volatility, weak recent fundamental momentum (sharp YoY EPS/net income drop), and a statistical downside bias over the next week/month, the risk/reward is unattractive for an impatient buyer. Best stance here is HOLD/AVOID new entries at current levels.
Trend/levels: Price $104.38 is above the pivot (103.163) and holding the near-term up-bias, but it is also close to first resistance (R1 105.065) where upside may stall. Supports sit at S1 101.26 and S2 100.085. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.312) but “positively contracting,” signaling bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening. RSI(6) at 58.68 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought), consistent with a range-bound/late-stage bounce rather than a fresh breakout. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation and lack of a strong trend. Quant pattern odds provided: 80% chance of -0.94% next day, -1.34% next week, -4.45% next month → downside skew dominates near-term expectations.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
and Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings (Feb 26, 2026 pre-market) can re-rate the stock if management messaging/guidance surprises positively.
and several firms still see the business holding up better than some peers, even if volumes are pressured.
is very close to the newest lowered target (~$105), reducing immediate upside.
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue increased to $2.330B (+2.59% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: net income $241.3M (-1084.90% YoY) and EPS $2.26 (-1082.61% YoY). Gross margin fell to 36.17% (-1.69% YoY). Summary: top-line growth is modest and appears pricing-driven, while margins/earnings momentum is weak—this makes it harder to justify buying near resistance without a clear turnaround signal.
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have drifted down and turned more cautious. The key change is Morgan Stanley’s downgrade (Jan 16, 2026) to Equal Weight with PT cut to $105 (from $115), citing intensifying competition and limited margin recovery. TD Cowen also trimmed PT to $105 (Hold). Post-Q2 (Nov 26, 2025) several firms lowered targets (e.g., Stifel to $110, UBS to $117, JPM to $121) while BofA modestly raised to $120 but stayed Neutral. Wall Street pros: Defensive staples profile/dividend support; some expectation for better earnings power later (BofA notes potential for $10+ EPS next year) and a few bullish ratings remain (UBS Buy). Wall Street cons: Volumes pressured, competition and private label risk rising, margin recovery uncertain; multiple firms sit at Hold/Neutral/Market Perform and targets have generally been reduced. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trends are neutral with no significant recent activity.
