SIRI Should I Buy
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SIRI is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is still in a bearish technical trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with weak momentum, and fundamentals show stagnant revenue with a sharp YoY drop in net income/EPS. Options positioning is mildly bullish (puts lighter than calls), but not strong enough to outweigh the downtrend and the ongoing subscriber-decline narrative ahead of the Feb 5 earnings event.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Trend/Momentum: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying the broader trend is still down. MACD histogram is below zero (-0.0522) but negatively contracting, which can hint selling pressure is easing (potential stabilization), not a confirmed reversal. RSI(6) at ~39.7 is weak/near oversold territory but still not a clean buy signal.
Levels: Price (~20.36) is sitting right on the pivot (20.362), which is a decision zone. Near-term support sits at S1 19.896 then S2 19.608 (break below increases downside risk). Resistance is R1 20.828 then R2 21.116 (needs a break above to improve the short-term setup).
Near-term odds (pattern-based): Model suggests a modest upside bias (about +1.04% next day, +2.2% next week, +3.22% next month), but this conflicts with the still-bearish trend structure—so any upside is more likely a bounce than a new uptrend unless resistance breaks.
• Dividend support: Board declared a $0.27/share cash dividend (payable Feb 27, record Feb 11), which can help near-term sentiment and provide carry.
• Hedge fund flow: Hedge funds are net buying, with buying amount up ~188% QoQ (supports the idea of value/mean-reversion interest).
• Potential “pricing chapter”: New coverage notes subscriber growth is maturing, but pricing power could be the next lever—if executed well, it can stabilize revenue/ARPU.
• Pattern-based near-term upside probabilities indicate a modest bounce potential from the pivot area.
• Subscriber declines remain the core overhang; multiple recent notes highlight shrinking subs and weak multi-year stock performance.
• Earnings catalyst risk: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market can create downside if guidance/subscriber trends disappoint.
• Bearish technical regime persists (downtrend MA stack) and momentum is still negative (MACD below 0).
• Financial quality concerns: sharp YoY deterioration in net income/EPS in the latest reported quarter suggests pressure on profitability and/or one-off impacts.
• No supportive insider trend: insiders are described as neutral (no notable buy signal from management).
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. • Revenue: $2.159B, down ~0.55% YoY (basically flat to slightly declining—limited growth). • Net income: $297M, down ~110.04% YoY (very large deterioration versus the prior year comparison). • EPS: 0.83, down ~109.51% YoY (mirrors net income weakness). • Gross margin: 45.21%, down ~1.85% YoY (modest margin compression).
Bottom line: growth is not present and profitability metrics weakened materially in the latest quarter, which makes it harder to justify chasing the stock without a clear technical reversal or a strong earnings catalyst.
Recent analyst action: On 2026-01-27, MoffettNathanson initiated coverage at Neutral with a $21 price target.
Interpretation: Wall Street’s stance here is balanced—acknowledging the mature/saturated streaming/subscriber backdrop (a key con), while pointing to pricing power as the main bull case (a key pro). The $21 target is only modestly above the current price (~20.36), implying limited near-term upside expected by this analyst without a clear fundamental inflection.
Pros view: pricing/ARPU expansion potential; dividend; value/mean-reversion interest. Cons view: subscriber declines, limited growth, and weaker profitability trends.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided.
