SHW Should I Buy
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SHW is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. While the longer-term trend looks constructive (bullish moving-average stack) and options positioning is skewed bullish, near-term momentum is weakening (MACD turning more negative), management guided cautiously around residential demand, and recent analyst action includes a meaningful downgrade citing limited earnings-growth acceleration. With price sitting just above the pivot/support zone (~351.8) and statistical pattern odds skewing negative over the next week/month, the risk/reward for an immediate entry is not attractive. Best stance: Hold/avoid new buys at current levels.
Trend & momentum: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the primary trend remains up. However, MACD histogram is -0.35 and negatively expanding, signaling weakening short-term momentum and increasing downside pressure. RSI: RSI_6 at 54.3 is neutral—no oversold support and no strong breakout momentum. Key levels: Current ~354.28 is slightly above Pivot 351.79 (near-term battleground). Resistance levels sit at R1 359.55 then R2 364.35; failure to reclaim/hold above ~360 increases risk of a drift back toward S1 344.03 (and S2 339.23 if selling accelerates). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. AI Stock Picker: no signal. SwingMax: no signal recently. Bias: Mildly bullish longer-term trend but near-term momentum is rolling over; not an ideal immediate entry for an impatient buyer.
and the company posted record full-year sales/earnings for
Adjusted EBITDA grew strongly (+13.4% cited), supporting the quality of earnings despite macro noise.
Pattern-based forward odds provided skew negative over the next week/month (not supportive of an impatient entry).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue rose to $5.596B (+5.64% YoY), showing steady top-line expansion. Profitability: Net income slipped slightly to $476.8M (-0.69% YoY) and gross margin edged down to 48.47% (-0.23 ppt YoY), indicating mild margin pressure. Per-share: EPS increased to 1.92 (+1.05% YoY), modest growth (helped by operating performance/capital structure). Takeaway: Solid sales growth, but earnings growth is currently modest and margins are not expanding—consistent with the narrative that SHW may struggle to re-accelerate to sustained 10%+ earnings growth near term.
Recent trend: Mixed but turning slightly more cautious at the margin. Upgrades/positives: Citi upgraded to Buy (Dec) and recently raised PT to $410 (Jan 19) ahead of the report; Vertical Research upgraded to Buy with $371 PT (Jan 7). Downgrades/caution: Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold (Jan 22/23) with PT cut to $380, citing fair valuation and sub-10% earnings growth outlook; BofA remains Neutral and trimmed PT to $370. Wall Street pros: strong franchise/record results; potential longer-dated housing tailwind; some bullish PTs (e.g., Citi $410). Wall Street cons: valuation viewed as full by bears; near-term earnings growth seen below 10% for a third straight year; housing/residential demand uncertainty. Net read: Street is not uniformly bearish, but the incremental move in the last two weeks includes a high-profile downgrade and "fair value" framing—more consistent with Hold than a fresh buy at today’s price.
