Should I Buy SHOO? SHOO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

35.710

1 Day change

3.33%

52 Week Range

46.880

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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SHOO is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor because the near-term technical setup is still weakening (bearish MACD expansion, price sitting below/near pivot with downside risk to support), while there is no proprietary buy signal today to override that. Longer-term upside looks attractive (Street targets ~$50–$52 vs ~$44, fashion tailwinds, Kurt Geiger accretion), but the current tape suggests a better entry is likely lower or after momentum turns.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price context: SHOO is ~44.02 (-0.49%) while the S&P 500 is down modestly (-0.28%).

Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.318 and negatively expanding, which usually signals bearish momentum is strengthening rather than bottoming.

RSI: RSI(6) at ~38.4 is not deeply oversold, but it is leaning weak—often consistent with further drift down before a cleaner rebound.

Moving averages: Converging moving averages suggests consolidation, but the bearish MACD tilt implies the consolidation is resolving down (for now).

Levels to watch:

Pivot: 44.617 (price is below pivot, a short-term negative)
Support: S1 43.334, S2 42.541 (likely downside magnets if selling persists)
Resistance: R1 45.901, R2 46.694 (would need reclaiming to restore bullish momentum)

Pattern-based expectancy (provided): ~50% chance of +1.07% next day, but -1.28% next week; that week-ahead bias aligns with the bearish MACD.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call ratios are extremely low (OI PCR 0.12; Volume PCR 0.03), indicating bullish positioning/flow skewed heavily toward calls.

Activity: Today’s option volume is very small (33 contracts total), but volume vs 30-day average is elevated (3.61x), suggesting a burst of interest—still, the absolute size limits how much conviction to infer.

Volatility: 30D IV ~50.34 vs HV ~50.9 (roughly in line). IV percentile ~59.84 implies IV is moderately elevated versus its own history—options are not “cheap.”

Takeaway: Options sentiment leans bullish (call-heavy), but it’s not yet confirmed by strong price momentum in the underlying.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst narrative is improving: multiple Buy/Outperform ratings and repeated price target raises into the $50–$52 range.
- Fashion and product-cycle tailwinds: multiple firms cite “trend-right” assortment and improving consumer response.
- Kurt Geiger acquisition: expected to be meaningfully accretive over FY26–FY27 per analysts.
- Potential easing/moderation of tariff headwinds (BTIG view).
- Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market), with EPS estimate ~0.46.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technicals are bearish: MACD negative and expanding; price below pivot increases odds of a support test (43.33/42.54).
- Latest quarter profitability deterioration: EPS and net income down ~62% YoY despite revenue growth, which can cap multiple expansion until margins recover.
- No supportive news flow in the past week to change momentum.
- Hedge funds/insiders: neutral, no strong "smart money" confirmation recently.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $667.9M (+6.92% YoY) — top-line growth remains healthy.
Net income: $20.53M (-62.86% YoY) — sharp earnings compression.
EPS: $0.29 (-62.34% YoY) — profitability headwind is the key issue.
Gross margin: 41.27% (down ~0.24% YoY) — margin pressure is present; the bigger problem appears to be below-gross-margin costs/operating leverage.

Overall: Growth is OK, but the stock likely needs clearer evidence of margin/earnings recovery to sustain a breakout.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings and targets have been moving up.

Needham (2026-01-08): upgraded to Buy from Hold; PT $50.
Telsey (2025-12-17): PT raised to $50; keeps Outperform.
Williams Trading (2025-12-09): PT raised to $52; keeps Buy.
BTIG (2025-12-04): PT raised to $50; keeps Buy.
Piper Sandler (2025-11-06): PT raised to $50; keeps Overweight.
UBS (2025-11-06): PT raised to $43; keeps Neutral (more cautious outlier).

Wall Street pros: fashion cycle improving, supply chain diversification, Kurt Geiger accretion and margin recovery potential (including a path to stronger earnings power).

Wall Street cons: at least one major firm remains Neutral; and the market may be waiting for proof that margin and EPS compression has reversed meaningfully.

Politicians / influential trading: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SHOO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SHOO is 48 USD with a low forecast of 41 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 34.560

Low

Averages

High

Current: 34.560

Low

Averages

High

Jefferies

Hold

Underperform

downgrade

$37 -> $30

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$37 -> $30

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Hold

Underperform

Reason

Jefferies downgraded Steven Madden to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $30, down from $37. The firm sees "mounting and persistent" wholesale pressures for Steven Madden, which represents 70% of the company's sales. These pressures are not adequately reflected in consensus estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies thinks Steven Madden's double-digit price increases have increasingly met resistance from large wholesale partners.

Needham

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$50

2026-01-08

Reason

Needham

Price Target

$50

2026-01-08

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

Needham upgraded Steven Madden to Buy from Hold with a $50 price target. The firm believes the company is benefiting from favorable fashion trends. Steven Madden has a "major" sales, margin and earnings recovery opportunity in 2026 and 2027 as it should see "meaningful" accretion from the Kurt Gieger acquisition over the next few years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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SHOO Should I Buy

SHOO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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