SE Should I Buy
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SE is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Fundamentals/news are strong, but the tape is still bearish (downtrend with worsening MACD and bearish moving-average stack) and Intellectia signals show no buy setup today. This is a “wait for confirmation” situation rather than a chase-it-now entry.
Price/Trend: SE is in a clear short-to-long term downtrend with bearish moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). Today’s drop (-4.73%) puts price (115.855) below the pivot (123.276) and near key support S2 (114.896), meaning the stock is testing a potential bounce zone but is not yet showing reversal confirmation. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.435) and expanding lower, signaling downside momentum is still strengthening. RSI: RSI_6 at 22.55 indicates oversold conditions (despite the provided note calling it neutral), which can support a short-term bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy signal while MACD/MA structure remains bearish. Levels: Immediate support is ~114.9 (S2). If that fails, downside can accelerate. Overhead resistance is 118.1 (S1) then 123.3 (pivot), which price would need to reclaim to improve the setup. Pattern/Probability read: Similar-pattern stats imply limited upside near-term (next week +1%) and mild negative drift next month (-2.38%), aligning with a “not yet” entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Q3 2025 growth narrative is strong: revenue +38% YoY (news cites ~40%), adjusted EBITDA +68% YoY; net income +150% YoY; EPS +141.7% YoY.
Shopee advertising revenue >70% growth (high-margin driver) supports higher-quality earnings expansion.
Monee loan growth points to expanding fintech monetization.
Hedge funds are buying: reported buying amount +215.34% over the last quarter.
Analyst actions skew positive (multiple Buys/Overweights) and recent upgrades cite pullback as overdone.
Technical setup remains bearish: falling price action, bearish MA stack, and MACD worsening—classic “falling knife” risk.
Price is sitting just above S2 (~114.9); a break can trigger another leg down quickly.
Some analysts are cautious on margins due to ongoing investment cycle (e-commerce margin outlook flattish near term), and there were recent price target trims (e.g., Wedbush; TD Cowen lowered targets and remains Hold).
Broader market is risk-off today (S&P 500 -0.86%), which can pressure high-beta internet names.
No insider accumulation signal: insiders are neutral over the last month.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue 5.986B, +38.30% YoY; Net Income 372.0M, +150.00% YoY; EPS 0.58, +141.67% YoY; Gross Margin 43.42%, +0.98 YoY. Overall: strong top-line acceleration with sharply improving profitability, consistent with the positive news highlights (Shopee ads and Monee growth).
Recent trend: Net positive bias with notable upgrades after the pullback, but with some target volatility. Upgrades/positive: Maybank upgraded to Buy (PT $156) citing risks priced in; Phillip upgraded to Buy (PT $170) after strong Q3; Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy (PT $170); Barclays kept Overweight and raised PT to $226. Cautious: TD Cowen remains Hold (PT cut to $138/$144 range) on margin/investment concerns; Wedbush kept Outperform but cut PT to $170. Wall Street pros: improving multi-segment growth, rising profitability, Shopee ads as a margin lever, Garena rebound, fintech expansion. Wall Street cons: near-term margin pressure from reinvestment, and uncertainty around how much of growth translates into sustained, higher margins. Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral.
