SCCO Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. SCCO is in a longer-term uptrend, but today’s sharp selloff (down 8.6%) with price still near historically “rich” valuation levels (per multiple Street downgrades) makes the risk/reward unattractive for an impatient buyer. With no Intellectia buy signals active and near-term downside skew suggested by pattern-based stats, I would NOT initiate a new position today; best stance is hold/avoid until either a deeper pullback toward support (177) or clarity from the 2026-02-11 pre-market earnings/guidance.
Trend/price action: Despite today’s heavy drop, the broader trend remains bullish on moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying this is a correction inside an uptrend rather than a confirmed trend break—yet the correction is meaningful. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (1.176) but “positively contracting,” signaling upside momentum is fading. RSI: RSI_6 at ~54 is neutral—no oversold condition to justify an impatient dip-buy. Levels: Price (189.75) is below the pivot (194.19), which is a near-term bearish setup. Next support is S1 ~177.24 (then S2 ~166.78). Resistance is R1 ~211.14. Quant/pattern read: Similar candlestick pattern study implies downside bias: ~80% chance of -0.52% next day, -1.08% next week, and -8.61% next month.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Dividend appeal (“sticky dividend”) is cited as a factor supporting valuation.
Valuation risk is the dominant bear argument: multiple firms (JPMorgan, UBS, Itau BBA, Scotiabank) recently flagged SCCO as expensive vs peers and/or downgraded it.
Operational/guidance risk: Street expects potential 2026 output dip/lower grades and higher costs; guidance at the upcoming earnings could disappoint.
Macro/commodity risk: JPMorgan flags near-term vulnerability in copper prices (recent move driven by technicals/positioning vs fundamentals).
Political/geopolitical risk: elevated Peru political risk heading into elections (per UBS).
Near-term technical setup: price below pivot after a large down day, with pattern-based stats pointing to further weakness.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $3.377B (+15.23% YoY) Net income: $1.108B (+23.52% YoY) EPS: $1.33 (+20.91% YoY) Gross margin: 53.67% (+5.24% YoY) Assessment: Clear positive growth and expanding profitability in 2025/Q3, but the stock’s current debate is less about recent execution and more about forward production/cost guidance and valuation at today’s price. Next key event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market).
Recent trend: Ratings have skewed more negative into late Jan 2026 with multiple downgrades (JPMorgan to Underweight, UBS to Sell, Itau BBA to Underperform) while Wells Fargo stayed Equal Weight. Price targets: Most targets cited are far below the current ~$189.75 (e.g., JPM ~$117.5, Scotiabank ~$125, Itau ~$126, UBS ~$148). Wells Fargo is the outlier at $192 (still effectively limited upside). Wall Street pros: Leverage to copper/silver, constrained supply thesis, and dividend support. Wall Street cons: “Rich” valuation vs peers, expected 2026 production headwinds/cost pressure, possible near-term copper consolidation, and Peru political risk. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders flagged as neutral with no significant recent trend.
