SBAC Should I Buy
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SBAC is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The tape is bearish (downtrend with weakening momentum), insiders are net sellers, and fundamentals show revenue growth but declining profitability. While Wall Street still leans positive on long-term tower risk/reward, near-term upside appears limited and price action suggests better odds of further chop/down before any durable rebound. If you don’t already own it, I would not enter today; if you do own it, I’d hold rather than add until momentum improves.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Trend & momentum: Clear short-term downtrend. Moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD histogram is negative (-0.185) and expanding lower, implying downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing.
RSI: RSI(6) at 37.24 is weak (near oversold but not a clean reversal zone), consistent with a stock that can still drift lower before buyers step in.
Levels to watch: Price (182.93) is below the pivot (187.84) and sitting right around first support (S1 183.18). A clean break below S1 increases risk of testing S2 (180.30). To regain a more constructive setup, bulls likely need to reclaim the pivot and then resistance near 192.50.
Near-term pattern odds (similar candlestick analogs): 70% chance of -1.62% next day; modest positive drift over the next week/month (+1.4% / +3.13%), but that’s not a strong “buy-now” edge given current momentum.
Wall Street still generally constructive on towers into 2026 (multiple Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings maintained) and UBS explicitly cites favorable 2026 risk-reward.
Verizon master lease agreement (MLA) improves colocation visibility in an uncertain carrier spend backdrop (noted positively by BMO).
Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 after hours (can reset narrative if guidance improves).
Pattern-based expectation shows modest upside over 1 week to 1 month (+1.4% / +3.13%), though near-term momentum is still negative.
Technical downtrend is intact: bearish MA stack and worsening MACD momentum; price is below pivot and leaning on support.
Insider selling is elevated: insiders are net sellers, and selling amount increased ~142.91% over the last month (negative signaling).
Profitability deterioration despite revenue growth (net income/EPS down YoY; margin down), limiting near-term multiple expansion.
Analyst commentary highlights muted AFFO/share growth outlook (Wells Fargo suggests no material AFFO/share growth until 2028), implying limited near-term fundamental acceleration.
No supportive news flow in the last week to spark a reversal.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $732.3M (+9.70% YoY), but profitability weakened: net income $236.8M (-8.40% YoY), EPS 2.20 (-8.33% YoY), and gross margin 63.59% (-6.44% YoY). This is a mixed growth profile—top-line expansion with contracting margins/earnings—consistent with why the stock can struggle to sustain rallies without a guidance re-acceleration.
Recent trend: price targets have been cut repeatedly (UBS 275→260, Wells Fargo 215→205, Barclays 226→219, RBC 235→232, TD Cowen 249→237, BMO 215→210), but most firms maintained their ratings (Buy/Outperform/Overweight holds from UBS/RBC/TD/Barclays; more neutral stances from Wells “Equal Weight” and BMO “Market Perform”).
Wall Street pros: long-term tower risk-reward seen as favorable; SBA viewed as having a relatively clean 2026 setup (including DISH lease duration considerations) and improved visibility via the Verizon MLA.
Wall Street cons: near-term upside case is hard to prove; growth headwinds/guidance adjustments and a slow AFFO/share growth runway temper enthusiasm despite generally positive long-term ratings.
Influential/political trading: no recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds are described as neutral with no significant recent trend.
