SATS Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. SATS is still in a short-term downtrend (bearish MACD, price below key pivot), and while it’s nearing support and could bounce, the current setup is more “falling knife” than clean dip-buy for an impatient buyer. I would hold off until it stabilizes above support (roughly the 108–113 zone) and starts reclaiming the 121 pivot; otherwise risk of further downside remains elevated.
Trend is bearish-to-neutral short term. The MACD histogram is -2.395 and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is still building. RSI(6)=31.58 is near oversold territory (not deeply oversold), which can support a short-term bounce but is not a reversal signal by itself. Moving averages are converging, consistent with a transition phase, but not yet confirming an uptrend. Key levels: Support S2 ~107.76 (critical) and S1 ~112.94 (near-term). Resistance/pivot is ~121.32; a reclaim of this level would improve the trend. With the stock at 109.65, it is sitting just above the major support band, meaning downside is limited only if that support holds; a break below ~107.8 would likely trigger faster selling.
Potential SpaceX IPO-related valuation uplift (EchoStar’s SpaceX stake and related transactions remain a major narrative catalyst). Spectrum sale/monetization catalysts and continued interest from large wireless players (per prior analyst commentary) can drive repricing. Pre-market strength (+2.84%) after a regular-session drop suggests dip buyers are present near support. Next earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-24 pre-market) can act as a sentiment catalyst if guidance/asset-value narrative strengthens.
Price action remains weak (regular session -3.04%) with bearish momentum (MACD worsening). SpaceX/xAI merger rumors and related uncertainty can create headline-driven volatility and profit-taking, not stable accumulation. Elevated implied volatility implies the market expects sharp moves; with the chart still bearish, those moves can skew down if support breaks. Near-term statistical trend in provided pattern study skews negative for the next month (-3.81% expected bias).
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue declined to 3.614B (-7.11% YoY), showing top-line contraction. Profitability remains very weak: net income was -12.781B (still a very large loss) and EPS was -44.37 (still deeply negative), even though YoY change rates appear mechanically ‘improved’ due to base effects. Gross margin improved to 12.76 (+2.90% YoY), but the overall earnings profile remains challenged—this supports a trading/asset-value story more than a fundamentals-driven buy “right now.”
Recent analyst tone has improved on asset-value catalysts, but is not uniformly bullish. TD Cowen reiterated Buy and lifted PT to $158 (from $100) in early January, citing sum-of-the-parts and spectrum/SpaceX-linked value; later comments flagged that incremental investors may not want additional deal uncertainty (xAI/SpaceX rumor-related). Deutsche Bank has a Buy with PT $131 citing clear spectrum-sale catalysts; Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight with PT $110 (earlier). On the cautious side, UBS and Citi remain Neutral with PTs around $125 and $111, respectively, reflecting valuation recalibration and reliance on SpaceX valuation assumptions. Wall Street ‘pros/cons’ view: Pros = catalysts and asset monetization (spectrum + SpaceX stake) with potential upside repricing; Cons = headline/transaction uncertainty and weaker operating fundamentals.
