SAN Should I Buy
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BUY now. SAN is in a bullish trend (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with positive momentum still intact, options positioning is notably bullish (low put/call ratios), hedge funds are accumulating, and the probabilistic pattern outlook points to upside over 1 week and 1 month. While the stock is nearing first resistance (12.928) and MACD is positively contracting (momentum slowing), the balance of evidence still favors upside from current levels for an impatient buyer.
Trend/structure: Bullish stack in moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0299) but contracting, suggesting the uptrend is intact but losing some speed in the very near term. RSI_6 at 61.8 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought), leaving room for further gains. Key levels: Pivot 12.488 is the main line in the sand; holding above it keeps the short-term bias bullish. Immediate resistance is R1 12.928 (close overhead), then R2 13.199. Supports are S1 12.049 then S2 11.778. With price ~12.735, the setup is bullish but somewhat "near-resistance," meaning follow-through likely needs a clean push through ~12.93 to accelerate. Pattern odds given: ~60% chance of -0.8% next day, +2.25% next week, +7.08% next month—consistent with a choppy near-term but upward multi-week bias.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Business/strategy: Santander’s Openbank digital retail banking platform launch supports a lower-cost funding/loan origination model, and leadership appointment (new Head of Auto Business) targets growth in the important US auto lending franchise.
Demand sentiment: Santander study showing improved middle-income household confidence (three-year high) can be supportive for consumer credit demand (autos/savings/retail banking).
Positioning: Hedge funds are reported as net buyers with a large quarter-over-quarter increase, which often supports sustained demand for shares.
Event-driven: Upcoming earnings window (QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-04 pre-market per calendar) can act as a catalyst if guidance/credit trends come in better than feared.
Regulatory/reputation: €40M+ fine from Spain’s SEPBLAC tied to internal process deficiencies at Openbank is a clear headline risk and could keep a risk premium on the stock near term.
Technical near-term: Price is close to first resistance (12.
while MACD is contracting; that combination can produce short pullbacks or consolidation even within an uptrend.
Macro/market tape: Broader market is risk-off today (S&P 500 -0.63%), which can cap immediate upside follow-through.
Event risk: Earnings (early Feb) can introduce volatility if credit quality, NIM, or costs disappoint.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth trends were positive but mixed: Revenue rose to 16.64B (+0.67% YoY), while profitability improved strongly—Net Income 4.10B (+14.70% YoY) and EPS 0.28 (+21.74% YoY). Takeaway: modest top-line growth with meaningful earnings leverage (improving bottom line faster than revenue), supportive of the current bullish trend if sustained.
Recent trend: Net mildly positive but not unanimous. Multiple firms raised price targets in Nov 2025 (Morgan Stanley to EUR 11 with Overweight; Citi to EUR 10 with Buy; Deutsche Bank to EUR 9.80 with Buy; RBC to EUR 8.50 with Sector Perform), indicating improving expectations/valuation tolerance. However, DZ Bank downgraded Banco Santander to Hold from Buy (EUR 10 target) on 2025-12-19, signaling some caution after the run or on risk balance. Wall Street pros view (pros): improving targets and several Buy/Overweight stances suggest confidence in earnings trajectory/capital returns and relative value. Cons: at least one downgrade to Hold suggests upside may be more incremental from here and more sensitive to regulatory/compliance headlines or macro shifts. Politicians/influential trading: no recent congress trading data available; no notable politician activity provided.
