SAIA Should I Buy
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Buy now for a near-term rebound setup: SAIA is trading right on key support (around 338/331) with a short-term washed-out RSI and strong institutional accumulation (hedge funds sharply increasing buying). While the intermediate trend is still soft (bearish MACD), the risk/reward at support plus generally higher Street price targets into 2026 makes it a favorable entry for an impatient buyer looking for an immediate attempt at a bounce ahead of the Feb-10 earnings catalyst.
Trend/price location: SAIA at 337.37 is below the Pivot (351.59) and essentially sitting on S1 (338.79); next support is S2 (330.89). This is a “decision zone” where bounces often occur, but losing 330.9 would weaken the setup. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-3.416) and expanding, confirming bearish momentum is still in force. RSI(6) at 32.26 is near oversold, suggesting downside may be getting exhausted short-term. Moving averages are converging, consistent with a basing process rather than a strong uptrend. Levels to watch: first upside hurdle is reclaiming the Pivot ~351.6; then R1 364.4.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Event catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock quickly if yields/tonnage trends stabilize or guidance improves.
Industry backdrop cited by multiple analysts: regulation-driven capacity attrition/tightening in trucking can support pricing and spillover demand into LTL over
Ownership/trading: Hedge funds are buying aggressively (+1241.86% QoQ buying amount), a meaningful vote of confidence.
Street narrative improving: multiple price target raises and at least one notable upgrade (Stephens to Overweight) suggest sentiment is recovering after prior terminal expansion “noise.”
Momentum still bearish (negative, expanding MACD) and price is below the key pivot level—technically this is not a confirmed uptrend yet.
Options flow is put-heavy (volume P/C 1.58), implying traders are still bracing for downside or volatility.
Recent fundamentals are soft: the latest reported quarter shows declining EPS/net income and slight revenue contraction, which can cap upside until volumes/pricing improve.
No supportive near-term news in the past week; the next major catalyst is earnings, which can cut both ways.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth trend was slightly negative: Revenue 839.64M (-0.29% YoY), Net Income 86.32M (-6.93% YoY), EPS 3.22 (-6.94% YoY). Profitability also softened with Gross Margin 65.57 (-1.94% YoY). Overall: modest top-line pressure with more noticeable earnings/margin compression—implies the bull case depends on an inflection in volumes and/or pricing discipline into 2026.
Recent trend: price targets have been rising across several firms (Stifel 292→343→371; TD Cowen 283→326; BofA 322→367; Citi 365→431; Susquehanna 350→390), indicating improving forward expectations even where ratings remain neutral/hold. Ratings mix: mostly Hold/Neutral/Peer Perform (Stifel Hold, TD Cowen Hold, BofA Neutral, Wolfe downgraded to Peer Perform) balanced by a smaller but important bullish camp (Citi Buy; Stephens upgraded to Overweight; Susquehanna Positive). Wall Street pros: capacity tightening/pricing support into 2026, terminal expansion headwinds easing, potential for better 2026 setup. Cons: near-term demand/volume recovery may take time (some expect not before late 2026), and the stock is still trading with cyclical uncertainty.
