Should I Buy RYN? RYN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Rayonier Inc (RYN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

22.460

1 Day change

-0.27%

52 Week Range

28.300

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Despite the merger catalyst and strong YoY Q3 growth, RYN is still in a clear bearish technical structure (SMA200>SMA20>SMA5 with a negatively expanding MACD). I’d wait for price to reclaim the pivot (~23.44) and hold above it (or break above ~24.55) before calling it a buy; at 22.86 it’s closer to support (22.33) than to resistance, so the risk/reward for immediate entry is not attractive.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying price is trading in a downtrend across short-to-long timeframes. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.164 and negatively expanding, signaling weakening momentum and increasing bearish pressure. RSI: RSI_6 at 39.46 is weak/near the lower side of neutral, consistent with a soft tape but not yet a clear oversold bounce signal. Levels: Pivot 23.439 is the key reclaim level for near-term trend improvement. Immediate support is S1 22.332 (nearby); below that S2 21.647. Resistance sits at R1 24.547 then R2 25.232. Tactical read: With price (22.86) below pivot and bearish momentum building, the higher-probability setup is either a confirmed rebound off 22.33 with improving MACD, or a reclaim of 23.44; buying now is effectively buying into a downtrend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: OI put/call at 0.29 is call-heavy (bullish positioning). Volume put/call at 0.58 is also more calls than puts (mild-to-moderate bullish flow). Volatility/pricing: 30D IV 34.61 vs HV 33.87 (slightly elevated). IV percentile 84 suggests options are relatively expensive versus the past year, consistent with event-driven demand (merger/earnings). Activity: Today’s volume (244) is below 5D avg (403.8) but near 10D avg (250.9); nothing screams capitulation or panic-hedging today. Takeaway: Options positioning leans bullish, but elevated IV suggests the market is already pricing in a notable move, reducing the edge of chasing shares immediately while the chart remains bearish.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Merger catalyst: Rayonier and PotlatchDeltic shareholders approved an all-stock merger (~$8.2B) expected to close shortly, creating a larger timber/wood products platform; potential for scale benefits and a re-rating after integration clarity.
Institutional behavior: Hedge funds are buying (reported buying amount up ~150.91% QoQ), supporting the idea of accumulating interest.
Pattern-based model: Provided candlestick-similarity study indicates a high-probability upside scenario over next day/week/month (though this conflicts with current bearish indicators, it’s still a supportive data point).
Earnings ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (AH) can act as a catalyst if guidance/merger commentary is favorable.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

plus negatively expanding MACD increases odds of another leg lower or choppy downside before a durable reversal.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q3): Strong YoY growth.

Revenue: $177.531M, +43.05% YoY
Net Income: $43.187M, +50.17% YoY
EPS: $0.28, +47.37% YoY
Gross Margin: 32.9%, +8.08% YoY Read-through: The quarter shows meaningful operational improvement and profitability expansion, which is a fundamental positive. However, the market’s current tape/technical setup suggests these improvements are not yet translating into a sustained uptrend in the stock price.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Predominantly Hold/Neutral-style stances with price targets moving down.

Truist (2026-01-06): PT cut to $26 from $28, Hold.
RBC (2025-12-18): PT cut to $25 from $27, Sector Perform.
Citi (2025-11-12): PT cut to $24 from $27, Neutral.
Seaport (2025-12-10): PT cut to $33 from $37, maintained Buy. Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros: One bullish outlier (Seaport Buy) and overall PTs still above current price, implying upside if sentiment improves and the merger is well-received. Cons: Broad PT reductions and mostly non-bullish ratings signal tempered confidence and expectation of tepid demand conditions near term. Influential trading check: No notable insider trend (neutral). No recent Congress trading data available, and no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast RYN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RYN is 27 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 22.520

Low

Averages

High

Current: 22.520

Low

Averages

High

Truist

Hold

downgrade

$28 -> $26

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$28 -> $26

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist lowered the firm's price target on Rayonier to $26 from $28 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Early 2026 is expected to see modestly challenged packaging volumes due to limited promotions, though some CPGs are successfully driving volume while retaining price gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Beverage cans should continue growing in North America and Europe, and containerboard producers are likely to implement price increases successfully thanks to disciplined supply management, the firm says.

RBC Capital

Matthew McKellar

Sector Perform

downgrade

$27 -> $25

2025-12-18

Reason

RBC Capital

Matthew McKellar

Price Target

$27 -> $25

2025-12-18

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Matthew McKellar lowered the firm's price target on Rayonier to $25 from $27 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing 2026 for Paper & Forest Products. 2025 was a challenging year for much of the forest products group, and with demand conditions seemingly remaining tepid into early 2026, the firm continues to prefer exposure to names where a supply response has either already played out to a significant degree - such as the containerboard group - or is seemingly in progress - such as lumber producers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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RYN Should I Buy

RYN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Rayonier Inc (RYN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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