RXO Should I Buy
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RXO is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The tape is weak (bearish MACD expansion, price slipping toward support), options flow is decisively defensive (extreme put/call volume skew), and fundamentals show revenue growth but deteriorating profitability/margins. Insider buying is a meaningful positive, but without a clear technical reversal or a proprietary buy signal, the risk/reward today favors waiting rather than buying immediately.
Trend/price action: RXO is trading at ~$14.49 (-2.96% today), below the pivot (15.166) and pressing near first support S1 (14.391). A clean break below S1 increases downside risk toward S2 (13.912). Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.0753 and negatively expanding, which indicates bearish momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~39.8 is not oversold; it suggests weakness but not an exhaustion low. Moving averages: Converging moving averages typically imply consolidation/indecision, but with MACD worsening and price below pivot, the balance tilts bearish near-term. Levels to watch: Support 14.39 then 13.91. Resistance is 15.17 (pivot) then 15.94. For a faster ‘buy-now’ setup, you’d want to see reclaim/hold above ~15.17 with improving MACD/RSI; that is not present today.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Insider activity: Insiders are buying, with buying amount up ~372% over the last month—often a bullish signal for medium-term confidence.
Industry setup into 2026: Multiple analysts cite regulation-driven capacity attrition/tighter capacity as a potential tailwind for trucking/logistics pricing into
Potential event catalyst: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-06 pre-market could reset sentiment if margins/guide improve versus lowered expectations.
Bearish technical momentum: MACD is negative and deteriorating; price is below pivot and leaning on support.
Options are aggressively defensive: Extremely high put/call volume ratio suggests traders are positioned for downside, not upside.
Profitability deterioration: Latest quarter shows losses widening materially and gross margin decline, reinforcing concerns about margin pressure.
Limited near-term narrative support: No meaningful news catalysts in the last week to counter the current down-move.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth vs profitability: Revenue rose to $1.421B (+36.63% YoY), but profitability worsened: net income fell to -$14M (-94.24% YoY) and EPS declined to -$0.08 (-95.58% YoY). Gross margin slipped to 14.78% (-4.52% YoY). Bottom line: strong top-line growth is not translating into earnings power right now, and margin compression is a key near-term overhang.
Recent trend: Price targets have been adjusted mostly modestly, with a mixed posture. TD Cowen raised PT to $14 (Hold). Citi trimmed PT to $15 (Neutral). Stifel has been Hold with PT adjustments (recently up to $16). UBS is Neutral with PT $15. Susquehanna remains Negative (PT up to $11). Morgan Stanley is the notable bull with Overweight and a $19 PT, arguing the prior selloff was overdone and highlighting RXO’s AI strategy. Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros: Valuation perceived more reasonable after drawdown; potential 2026 capacity tightening tailwind; AI/tech angle could drive differentiation. Cons: Near-term seasonality/softness; margin pressure and trough-level earnings concerns; at least one major firm remains Negative. Influential/political trading: No recent Congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided.
