RUN Should I Buy
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BUY right now. RUN is pulling back (-4.15% to $18.88) into a technically constructive uptrend (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and sits closer to support ($17.14) than resistance ($21.31), creating a favorable near-term risk/reward for an impatient buyer. Options positioning is net-bullish (puts not dominating) and newsflow supports the longer-duration Virtual Power Plant (VPP) narrative ahead of the Feb 26 earnings catalyst. This is not a “strong-signal” day from Intellectia modules, but the setup still looks like a buyable dip rather than a breakdown.
Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals an intermediate uptrend is still intact despite today’s selloff. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.185) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is cooling rather than reversing decisively. RSI_6 ~47.9 is neutral—no overbought condition, but also not a washed-out oversold bounce signal. Levels: Price ($18.88) is below the pivot (19.223), so near-term tone is cautious. Key support is S1 at 17.137 (then S2 15.849). Upside resistance is R1 21.309 (then R2 22.597). From $18.88, downside to S1 is ~-9%, while upside to R1 is ~+13%, which is attractive for an impatient entry if support holds. Pattern-based forward drift (given): Next day skew slightly negative (-0.32% with 30% probability), but next week points modestly positive (+1.36%).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Upcoming event: Q4 and FY2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) can serve as a volatility/catalyst window.
Theme tailwinds: Rising electricity demand (EVs, temperature extremes) and broader adoption of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) is supportive for Sunrun’s grid services narrative.
Company-specific traction (news): Sunrun enrolled ~106,000 customers in VPP programs and partnered with utilities to provide ~500MW of capacity—supports credibility of the VPP monetization story.
Street positioning: Multiple Buy-rated notes and raised targets in recent months (Guggenheim upgrade to Buy; Roth and Clear Street target raises) frame dips as potentially buyable.
Near-term tape: Stock is down sharply today (-4.15% regular session; -1.77% premarket) and trading below the pivot (19.223), so it must hold/recapture that area to reduce near-term downside risk.
Momentum cooling: Positive-but-contracting MACD indicates the rally is losing steam in the short run.
Earnings risk: Feb 26 earnings can cut both ways; the market currently expects a loss (calendar shows Est EPS -0.08), so any miss/weak guide could pressure the stock.
High volatility: IV ~92% implies large price swings can occur quickly; supports upside opportunity but also increases downside move risk if support breaks.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue rose to $724.6M (+34.88% YoY), showing strong top-line growth. Profitability: Net income fell to $16.6M (-119.80% YoY) and EPS to $0.06 (-116.22% YoY), indicating earnings pressure versus last year. Margins: Gross margin improved to 33.57 (+74.30% YoY), a notable positive trend suggesting better unit economics/asset mix even as bottom-line comparables were weak. Overall: Clear revenue acceleration and margin improvement, but earnings volatility remains a concern going into Q4/FY results.
Recent trend: Net-positive over the last ~3 months with multiple target raises and at least one notable upgrade. Upgrades/raises: Guggenheim upgraded to Buy with a $27 target (2025-11-10). Roth raised target to $30 (2025-11-07). Clear Street raised targets to $21 (2025-11-07) and then $23 (2025-12-23), citing NRG partnership upside and higher 2027 cash generation forecasts. More cautious view: Deutsche Bank trimmed target to $19 from $20 and maintained Hold (2026-01-07); Morgan Stanley is Equal Weight with a $21 target (2025-12-02). Wall Street pros: (1) Growing VPP/grid-services opportunity and scale, (2) partnership-driven longer-term cash generation narrative (NRG mention), (3) recent weakness seen as entry by some analysts. Wall Street cons: (1) Earnings inconsistency and expectation of losses in upcoming quarter, (2) sensitivity to policy/financing/backdrop (implied by sector), (3) high-volatility profile. Influential/political trading: Hedge funds and insiders listed as Neutral with no significant recent trend; no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
