RTX Should I Buy
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Buy RTX now. Despite a short-term momentum cooling (negative, expanding MACD histogram), the broader trend remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), fundamentals just beat expectations in 2025/Q4, Wall Street raised targets broadly after earnings, options positioning is call-leaning, and recent Congress activity shows net buying. For an impatient buyer, the setup supports entering at/around ~$199 rather than waiting for a deeper pullback.
Price/Trend: RTX is trading ~198.99 near the pivot (199.008) after a mild dip (-0.42% regular session; -0.51% pre-market), while the S&P 500 is down (-0.53%), implying relative resilience. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.221 (below zero) and negatively expanding, signaling short-term momentum is weakening. RSI: RSI(6) ~56.95 is neutral—no immediate overbought/oversold condition. Moving Averages: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 supports an uptrend on a multi-timeframe basis. Key levels: Immediate resistance R1 ~203.54 then R2 ~206.34. Supports S1 ~194.48 then S2 ~191.68. With price sitting on/near the pivot, the next clean technical push is a break above ~203.5; failure could mean a drift toward ~194–192.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Earnings/Outlook momentum: Q4 2025 results beat consensus on EPS and revenue, prompting multiple price target hikes.
Analyst support: Several firms reiterated/maintained bullish stances (Overweight/Outperform) and raised targets into the $215–$235 range.
Industry tailwinds: News flow highlights continued defense spending interest (dividends + growth angle) and supportive commercial aerospace dynamics (Airbus program developments; long-cycle demand commentary from Pratt & Whitney executives).
Political flow: Congress trading over the last 90 days shows heavier buying (8 purchases, $1.6M–$6.5M) versus lighter selling (4 sales, $0.1M–$1.5M), net positive signal.
Near-term momentum softening: MACD is negative and weakening, raising odds of consolidation or a pullback toward support (~194–192).
Valuation pushback pockets: Some coverage is Neutral/Market Perform (e.g., UBS Neutral; Bernstein Market Perform) citing the stock as closer to fair value.
Margin pressure: Gross margin declined slightly YoY in 2025/Q4, indicating some cost/investment or mix headwinds even as revenue and earnings grew.
Pattern-based near-term drift: The provided candlestick-pattern analog suggests modestly negative bias over the next week/month (downside skew in the next month).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue rose to $24.238B (+12.09% YoY), net income increased to $1.622B (+9.45% YoY), and EPS grew to $1.19 (+8.18% YoY) — solid top-line and earnings growth. Profitability: Gross margin slipped to 19.46% (-0.66 YoY), a minor negative, but overall results were strong enough to drive widespread positive analyst revisions. Ownership/trading trends: Hedge funds and insiders are described as Neutral recently (no significant trend), which is not a headwind but also not an incremental bullish catalyst.
Recent trend: Clear post-earnings bullish revision cycle. From Jan 28–29, multiple firms raised price targets following the Q4 beat and supportive cash flow/outlook commentary. Targets/ratings highlights: Morgan Stanley raised PT to $235 (Overweight; Top Pick), RBC to $230 (Outperform), Baird to $225 (Outperform), Jefferies to $225 (Hold), JPMorgan to $215 (Overweight), UBS to $208 (Neutral), Bernstein to $204 (Market Perform). Wall Street pros: (1) Strong end-market demand across defense and commercial aerospace, (2) improving confidence in free cash flow/cash conversion, (3) expectations for sustained growth and margin expansion. Wall Street cons: (1) Some analysts see valuation as fairly calibrated/closer to fair value, limiting near-term multiple expansion, (2) investors remain focused on execution items like defense sales trajectory and program-related uncertainties (notably engine/fleet management discussions in coverage/news context).
