Should I Buy ROKU? ROKU 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Roku Inc (ROKU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

85.850

1 Day change

-0.23%

52 Week Range

116.660

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. Roku is deeply oversold and near a support zone (around 94.7–97.5), which can produce a short-term bounce, but current momentum is still down (bearish MACD expansion) and selling signals from insiders and hedge funds are strong. With earnings approaching in mid-February and no Intellectia buy signals today, the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is unfavorable at this moment. I would avoid initiating a new position today and only consider buying after ROKU reclaims ~102 (pivot) or shows a momentum turn.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: ROKU at 96 (-4.53%) is trading below the pivot (102.198) and below S1 (97.541), sitting just above S2 (94.664), indicating a breakdown level and a test of lower support. Momentum: MACD histogram -1.291 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum still accelerating downward. RSI: RSI(6) 17.35 = extremely oversold, raising odds of a reflex bounce, but oversold alone is not a reversal signal. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests compression/transition, but with MACD worsening and price under key levels, the near-term bias remains bearish until price recovers the pivot (~102). Levels to watch: Support 94.7 then ~90 area (not provided, but next logical). Resistance 102.2 (pivot), then 106.9 and 109.7.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Open interest put/call at 1.33 is defensive/lean-bearish (more puts outstanding), but the volume put/call at 0.67 suggests today’s flow is more call-leaning (short-term traders positioning for a bounce). Volatility: 30D IV 51.13 vs historical vol 42.67 = options are pricing elevated uncertainty (earnings proximity likely). IV percentile 45.2 / IV rank 17.9 implies IV is not extreme versus its own history, but still elevated vs realized. Volume context: Today’s option volume is ~88.5% of the 30-day average (not a standout spike), so sentiment is mixed rather than a strong directional bet.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Analyst momentum is strongly positive: multiple upgrades and price-target hikes (Evercore upgrade to Outperform; Morgan Stanley double upgrade; Arete upgrade; Wells added to Tactical Ideas; JPMorgan top pick). Street narrative focuses on 2026 ad market strength, Amazon DSP integration, Roku Ad Manager growth, premium subscriptions in Roku Channel, margin expansion/GAAP profitability trajectory, and potential index inclusion.
Event catalyst: Upcoming Q4 2025 earnings/call in mid-February (company announced Feb 12; calendar shows after-hours Feb 17). A strong guide could trigger a sharp rebound from oversold levels.
Technical setup: Extremely oversold RSI increases probability of a near-term snapback rally if sellers exhaust.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Positioning/smart-money signals: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up ~494% QoQ) and insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~3271% MoM), which directly conflicts with the bullish sell-side narrative.
Trend risk: MACD is bearish and worsening; price is below pivot and broke under S1 support, meaning the downtrend remains in force.
News/flow: ARK Invest recently sold Roku shares (adds incremental near-term supply/sentiment headwind).
Fundamentals: Profitability and margins weakened in the latest provided quarter (see financials), making the stock more dependent on a forward-looking 2026 improvement story.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $1.2106B (+13.97% YoY), showing solid top-line momentum. However, profitability deteriorated sharply: net income fell to $24.8M (-374.77% YoY) and EPS to $0.16 (-366.67% YoY). Gross margin also declined to 43.36% (-4.07% YoY). Net result: growth is present, but operating leverage is not yet consistently translating into improved margins/earnings in the provided quarter—raising the importance of upcoming Q4 results and 2026 guidance.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: decisively improving. Since mid-Dec through early Jan, multiple major firms upgraded the stock and raised targets (MS to Overweight $135; Jefferies to Buy $135; Evercore to Outperform $145; Arete to Buy $132; Citizens Outperform $160; JPMorgan Overweight $125 and named Roku a top pick; Wedbush reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $130; Guggenheim raised to $115; Wells Overweight $116). Wall Street pros: Strong 2026 catalyst stack (CTV ad rebound, monetization initiatives, Amazon DSP integration, margin expansion/GAAP profitability path, possible index inclusion). Wall Street cons: Near-term margin/investment uncertainty, AI/disintermediation risk mentioned by Jefferies as a factor that could cap multiple expansion, and the stock is currently trading with negative technical momentum despite upbeat forecasts. Influential/politician activity: No recent Congress trading data available. No politician transactions provided. ARK Invest (not a politician) was a recent notable seller.

ROKU Should I Buy