ROK Should I Buy
-
$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
Loading...
ROK is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The longer-term trend still looks bullish (stacked moving averages), but near-term momentum is fading (MACD rolling over) while the stock trades around a key pivot (~416.5) and ahead of earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market). With mixed-to-cautious analyst tone (notably a recent downgrade citing near-record valuation) and recent quarter profit/EPS pressure despite revenue growth, the risk/reward for an immediate entry is unattractive. I would hold/avoid adding here and only consider buying on a cleaner pullback toward the 405–400 support zone or after earnings clarity.
Price/Trend: ROK is down -2.29% today to 417.23 (pre-market -1.20%) while the S&P 500 is -0.58%. The trend is still constructive on a multi-timeframe basis with bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the near-term tape is weakening. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.133 and negatively expanding (bearish momentum building). RSI(6) ~52 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal. Levels: Pivot ~416.50 (price is sitting just above it). Resistance: 427.23 then 433.86. Support: 405.77 then 399.14. With MACD deteriorating, a drift/test toward 405–399 is plausible before a higher-probability entry. Quant-style short-horizon bias: Pattern-based projection provided suggests modest downside bias over 1W (-0.6%) and 1M (-1.24%).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market): if guidance/order commentary confirms an industrial inflection, the stock can re-rate higher quickly.
Analyst price targets skew above the current price among bullish shops (e.g., Barclays 450, Citi 466, Jefferies 470), reflecting longer-cycle optimism (AI/data center/automation exposure).
Commercial win/partnership visibility: Lucid partnership headline supports Rockwell’s positioning in advanced manufacturing software/automation (positive optics, even if not necessarily material near-term).
Near-term momentum deterioration: MACD is negative and worsening while price sits near a key pivot—set-up favors chop/down before a clean entry.
Earnings risk (2026-02-05): with IV moderately elevated, any disappointment on orders/guidance could push a fast move toward 405–399 support.
Recent profitability pressure: despite strong revenue growth, net income and EPS fell sharply YoY, raising questions about mix, costs, and sustainability of margin trajectory.
Analyst caution on valuation: Oppenheimer downgrade (to Perform) argues operational progress and the expected demand inflection may already be priced in at ‘near record’ valuation levels.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to $2.316B (+13.79% YoY), but profitability weakened materially: net income $139M (-41.55% YoY) and EPS $1.23 (-41.15% YoY). Gross margin slipped to 69.43% (-1.05% YoY). Bottom line: growth is present, but earnings power compressed meaningfully versus last year—this increases the importance of guidance and order trends in the next report.
Recent trend: Price targets were mostly raised into late 2025/early 2026 (Wells Fargo 410 from 380; Barclays 450 from 435; JPMorgan 404 from 400; prior upgrades/initiations with targets in the 440–470 range), but sentiment cooled with Oppenheimer’s 2026-01-20 downgrade to Perform from Outperform, explicitly citing that good execution and an expected manufacturing inflection may be priced in at a rich valuation. Wall Street pros: Structural pricing improvement under new management (Goldman), productivity/margin expansion potential, leverage to AI/data center/automation capex cycle, and cyclical recovery tailwinds. Wall Street cons: Valuation looks stretched, order acceleration may be modest rather than strong near-term, and guidance could be prudent/underwhelming—limiting upside from current levels. Influential/political trading check: No politician/congress trading data was provided in the last 90 days, and no notable influential-figure buys/sells of ROK were indicated in the dataset. Hedge fund/insider activity: Both described as Neutral with no significant recent trends.
