ROIV Should I Buy
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BUY now. ROIV is sitting right on key support (~21.76) with an oversold short-term RSI and extremely call-skewed options positioning (bullish sentiment). While momentum (MACD) is still bearish, the risk/reward favors an impatient buyer looking for a near-term bounce ahead of the early-Feb catalyst window and earnings (Feb 9 pre-market).
Price/levels: ROIV at 21.765 is essentially on S1 support (21.763) with the next support at S2 (21.311). Immediate overhead pivot resistance is 22.495, then 23.226 (R1). Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.183) and expanding lower, confirming the current downtrend is still active. Mean-reversion setup: RSI(6) at 27.724 is oversold (despite the label in the feed), which often precedes short bounces—especially when price is pinned to support. Moving averages are converging, suggesting the decline may be losing trend strength and setting up for a base; however, a clean reversal isn’t confirmed until price reclaims ~22.50 (pivot) and holds.
Near-term event window: Earnings scheduled Feb 9 (pre-market) and related Immunovant update/call logistics Feb 6 keep attention on the broader Roivant ecosystem into early February.
Sell-side tone is constructive with multiple recent price target increases and continued Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings.
Setup: price at support + oversold RSI can attract dip-buyers for a reflex rally.
Technical trend still negative: MACD is bearish and worsening, so a support break (below ~21.76, then ~21.
could accelerate downside quickly.
Event risk: with high implied volatility and an upcoming earnings date, any disappointment can cause a sharp move.
Fundamentals: revenue is shrinking sharply YoY (latest quarter), highlighting reliance on pipeline/catalysts rather than current operations.
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue fell to 1.571M (-64.89% YoY), indicating weak/volatile top-line. Profitability improved but remains deeply negative: net income was -113.519M (50.68% less negative YoY) and EPS -0.17 (45.16% less negative YoY). Gross margin remained very high at 92.93% (down 1.94% YoY), consistent with a model not driven by mature product revenue. Overall: losses are narrowing, but growth is not coming from revenue yet—this remains a catalyst-driven story.
Recent trend: Analysts have been raising price targets and reiterating positive ratings into late 2025 (Buy/Outperform/Overweight). Notable raises include Leerink to $32 (Outperform), Guggenheim to $28 (Buy), and others clustering in the $26–$32 range, with JPMorgan naming ROIV a top pick and focus-list growth idea. Wall Street pros: strong pipeline/catalyst narrative and improving long-term profitability expectations. Wall Street cons: timelines/catalyst scheduling risk (some data pushed to 1H26 per prior commentary) and limited current revenue base. Net: Street view is clearly positive, supporting a buy-the-dip approach near support.
