RNW Should I Buy
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RNW is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The technical setup is not offering a clean momentum entry (price below pivot with weakening positive momentum), hedge funds are aggressively selling, and options positioning shows heavy put open interest (defensive/bearish). Despite solid revenue growth and analyst targets still well above the current price, the near-term setup favors waiting rather than buying immediately.
Price/levels: RNW at 5.38 is below the pivot (5.449), sitting closer to support S1 (5.281) than resistance R1 (5.617), which tilts near-term risk toward a support retest. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0638) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening. RSI(6) at 41.63 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold, not strong), consistent with a soft/basing tape rather than a rebound thrust. Moving averages are converging, typically signaling consolidation/indecision rather than a trend you can chase. Probabilistic pattern read: Similar-pattern analysis suggests an 80% chance of about -1.43% next day, then roughly flat-to-slightly positive over the next week/month—more consistent with chop than an immediate upside breakout.
Fundamentals: 2026/Q2 revenue grew +35.65% YoY, supporting the long-term renewables growth narrative.
Valuation/target upside (by implication): Analysts still have targets in the $7–$8.15 range vs. $5.38 spot, leaving room for mean reversion if sentiment stabilizes.
Upcoming event: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-20 pre-market could reset expectations if execution and guidance improve.
Deal catalyst removed: The proposed take-private transaction is off after Masdar withdrew, removing a major near-term support for the share price and leaving a sentiment overhang.
Flows: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~494% over the last quarter), which often pressures price in the near term.
Profitability trend: 2026/Q2 net income down -5.35% YoY despite strong revenue growth—suggests margin/finance cost/other pressures.
Technical posture: below pivot with fading MACD strength; near-term odds favor chop/down before a durable uptrend resumes.
Latest quarter (2026/Q2): Revenue increased to 36,266,000,000 (+35.65% YoY), showing strong top-line expansion. Net income fell to 4,675,000,000 (-5.35% YoY), indicating profitability did not keep pace with revenue (costs, financing, or mix likely weighed). EPS shown as 0 (flat YoY per provided snapshot). Overall: strong growth on sales, but weakening earnings momentum—good for a long-term story, less supportive for an immediate buy-now trade.
Recent trend: Analysts reduced price targets after the take-private deal collapsed, but ratings did not uniformly turn bearish. Roth Capital reiterated Buy while trimming PT slightly to $8 (from $8.15). Mizuho kept Neutral while cutting PT to $7 (from $8.15) and characterized the selloff as likely overdone (arbitrage exit-driven). Wall Street pros: (Pros) meaningful upside to targets vs. current price; selloff may have been technically driven. (Cons) loss of the take-private catalyst and uncertainty around re-rating without that anchor; neutral stance from at least one major shop post-event.
