RLI Should I Buy
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RLI is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is in a bearish technical structure (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) with price sitting just below the pivot (~58.08) and limited upside implied by most recent Wall Street targets clustered around ~$58–$59. While fundamentals in 2025/Q4 were strong YoY and hedge funds have been accumulating, analysts are flagging 2026 growth headwinds in Property underwriting and multiple firms just cut targets. Net: HOLD/avoid new buys at current ~57.86; it becomes more attractive on a cleaner technical reversal above ~59.83 (R1) or on a pullback toward ~56.33 support with stabilization.
Trend/structure: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the intermediate/long trend remains down. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0751) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing (early stabilization, not a confirmed reversal). RSI(6)=43.47 is neutral-to-soft, consistent with weak demand but not deeply oversold. Key levels: Pivot 58.084 (price ~57.86 is slightly below, acting as near-term overhead). Resistance: R1 59.833 then R2 60.914 (reclaiming R1 would be the first credible trend improvement). Support: S1 56.334 then S2 55.253 (a break below S1 increases risk of another leg down). Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model implies modest upside bias (60% chance) but with small expected moves (≈+2.27% next day; ≈+0.28% next week; ≈+1.15% next month), aligning with a choppy/mean-reversion environment rather than a strong uptrend.
Financial momentum (YoY): 2025/Q4 revenue +6.05%, net income +123.14%, EPS +1000% indicates strong year-over-year improvement off a weaker prior base. Momentum easing: MACD contraction hints the selloff may be stabilizing.
and R1 (~59.83). Wall Street target cuts/valuation concerns: Truist and Wells Fargo cut PTs to ~$58–$59 and describe the stock as fully valued with 2026 growth headwinds; Jefferies upgrade was only to Hold with PT $
Industry/earnings headwinds: Analysts cite challenging Property markets and pressure on Property underwriting profit, implying tougher growth in
Options liquidity is very low: bullish put/call metrics are less informative with minimal volume.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue was 465.693M (+6.05% YoY). Net income was 91.177M (+123.14% YoY). EPS was 0.99 (+1000% YoY). These are strong YoY growth prints, but recent analyst notes emphasize forward-looking pressure on Property underwriting profitability and softer top-line growth expectations into FY26.
Recent trend: Predominantly cautious with multiple price target cuts. Keefe Bruyette maintained Outperform but cut PT to $70 (from $81). Truist maintained Hold and cut PT to $58 (from $62), citing the stock as fully valued and lowering FY26 EPS view. Wells Fargo maintained Equal Weight and cut PT to $59 (from $62), emphasizing challenging Property markets. Jefferies upgraded to Hold from Underperform but kept a $52 PT (upgrade driven by valuation compression, not a bullish re-rating). Wall Street pros: disciplined underwriting, excess capital, potential future capital returns. Cons: near-term growth/underwriting headwinds, limited upside vs current price based on the ~$58–$59 PT cluster, and the chart remains bearish. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data and no notable insider trend (neutral).
