RKT Should I Buy
-
$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
Loading...
RKT is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is in a sharp breakdown (-16.44% regular session and -8.52% pre-market), momentum is still deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding), and price is trading below the key S1 support (18.017) with the next support at S2 (16.292). While options positioning is bullish (call-heavy) and RSI is extremely oversold (bounce potential), there is no proprietary buy signal today and there’s a fresh legal overhang in the news flow. Net: this is a high-risk “falling knife” setup—better to hold off rather than buy immediately.
Trend/Momentum: Strong short-term downtrend. MACD histogram at -0.513 and negatively expanding signals bearish momentum is increasing, not fading. Oversold: RSI(6) at 10.857 is deeply oversold, which can spark a reflex rally, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger when momentum is still worsening. Levels: Pivot 20.809 is far overhead; S1 at 18.017 has been lost (current ~17.36), which flips prior support into resistance. Next downside reference is S2 at 16.292. A durable reversal would typically require reclaiming 18.017 and stabilizing. Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-candlestick analogue suggests continued drift lower (70% chance of -2.23% next day, -3.29% next week, -5.5% next month), aligning with the bearish momentum read.
Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) could reset expectations if guidance/volume trends improve.
Legal overhang: New class-action lawsuit alleging coercive steering of agents toward Rocket Mortgage is a near-term sentiment and headline risk.
Price action shock: The large gap/down move and breach of key support increases odds of follow-through selling and forces dip-buyers to absorb supply.
Near-term statistical bias points lower: Pattern-based probabilities imply further downside over day/week/month horizons.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue rose to ~$1.70B, up ~126.51% YoY (strong top-line rebound). Profitability: Net income improved YoY but remains negative (-$123.9M). EPS was -$0.06, worse YoY (-62.5%), signaling profitability is still not stabilized. Read-through: The company is showing strong revenue momentum, but earnings quality is not yet supporting a clean uptrend in the stock—especially important during a technical breakdown.
Recent trend: Analyst tone has improved into late 2025/early 2026 with multiple bullish initiations and price-target increases. Key changes: Barclays raised PT to $22 (Equal Weight). Jefferies initiated Buy with $25 (highest conviction in sector). Oppenheimer initiated Outperform with $25. Keefe Bruyette raised PT to $20 (Market Perform). Wall Street pros view: Best-positioned scaled originator/servicer to benefit from mortgage volume normalization; strategic funnel expansion via Redfin/Mr. Cooper; upside if rates fall and refis return. Wall Street cons view: Purchase demand still constrained by affordability; execution/integration risk around acquisitions; current profitability remains uneven; today’s selloff and legal headlines can pressure multiples despite higher targets.
