RIOT Should I Buy
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RIOT is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is in a short-term breakdown (down 7% today) and trading below a key support zone (15.92), with bearish momentum expanding. Despite generally bullish Street views and call-leaning options positioning, the current tape argues for waiting until price reclaims support (15.92) and preferably the pivot (~17.40) before treating it as a fresh long entry.
Price/Trend: RIOT is sharply lower (-7.13% regular session; -3.59% pre-market), signaling near-term risk-off. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.088) and negatively expanding, which typically confirms a weakening/accelerating down move. RSI: RSI(6) at 36.5 is weak but not deeply oversold—so downside can continue before a reflex bounce becomes likely. Moving averages: The MA structure is still bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend may not be fully broken, but today’s selloff is a short-term trend hit. Levels: Current 15.665 is below S1 (15.921) and approaching S2 (15.006). A clean reclaim above 15.92 would reduce immediate breakdown risk; the pivot at 17.401 is the next key level to regain for trend confidence. Pattern-based forecast: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-0.67% next day but positive drift over 1 week (+2.34%) and 1 month (+5.1%), suggesting a bounce is possible—but the entry is currently fighting momentum.
Industry tailwinds and crypto-market infrastructure optimism in the news flow (e.g., BitGo IPO strength; NYSE tokenized securities platform discussion) can improve sentiment for crypto-exposed equities.
Ongoing market narrative that miners can monetize power/data-center assets for AI/HPC, which is a key reason analysts remain constructive on RIOT.
Longer-horizon pattern data favors upside over the next week/month if support holds and a bounce develops.
Immediate price action is risk-off: a large down day and a break below S1 (~15.
with bearish MACD expansion increases odds of further downside toward ~15.
Elevated implied volatility implies uncertainty and larger drawdowns are plausible in the near term.
Earnings ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 (after hours) with EPS estimate -0.22 can be a sentiment catalyst either way; for a momentum-weak chart, this is an additional near-term overhang.
Crypto/miner equities are highly sensitive to Bitcoin price moves; prior analyst target cut cited lower BTC prices (shows ongoing dependency).
Latest quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue rose to $180.229M (+112.57% YoY), showing strong top-line growth. However, profitability deteriorated: Net income $104.48M (-167.69% YoY), EPS $0.26 (-148.15% YoY), and gross margin turned negative (-6.75%, down -88.11% YoY). Summary: Growth is strong, but margins/profitability are trending the wrong way—this supports a higher-risk profile and can amplify downside when sentiment turns.
Recent trend: Wall Street has stayed broadly bullish (Outperform/Overweight bias) with price targets generally in the high-teens to mid-20s. Notably, on 2026-01-26 Keefe Bruyette raised its PT to $23 from $16 (kept Outperform), citing long-duration demand visibility via an AMD lease. Earlier, JPMorgan cut PT to $17 from $19 (kept Overweight) due to lower BTC and higher share count. Bernstein and Citizens JMP also framed miners as part of the AI/HPC value chain with $25 targets and Outperform ratings. Pros view: power assets + AI/HPC optionality and improved demand visibility could re-rate the story. Cons view: earnings power/margins remain volatile and the equity is highly tied to crypto cycles and dilution/share-count dynamics. Influential trading check: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
