RILY Should I Buy
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BUY now. Despite today’s pullback to 8.71 (-4.4%), the near-term setup is attractive for an impatient buyer because (1) management’s Q4 2025 guidance implies a sharp earnings and profitability rebound plus materially lower net debt, and (2) options positioning is skewed bullish (puts not dominating). Technically it’s choppy short-term (bearish MACD), but price is sitting just above a clear support zone (~8.49), creating a favorable “buy near support” entry with upside back toward 9.38–10.26 if the positive Q4 catalyst narrative continues to drive sentiment.
Trend/price action: RILY is weak intraday/near-term (down -4.40% today; pre-market -1.30%) and currently trading below the pivot level (9.379), which keeps immediate momentum cautious.
Momentum indicators: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0425) and expanding lower, signaling bearish short-term momentum; RSI(6)=46.95 is neutral, not oversold, so there isn’t a strong “bounce” signal from RSI alone.
Moving averages: The moving average stack is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend has been improving even if the last few sessions have softened.
Key levels: Support S1=8.493 (very close to current 8.71) then S2=7.945. Resistance levels: Pivot 9.379 first, then R1=10.265 and R2=10.813.
Pattern-based forward view provided: model indicates 60% chance of small next-day gain (0.14%) and improving odds over 1 week (3%) and 1 month (6.98%), consistent with a rebound-biased swing setup if support holds.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Q4 2025 guidance suggests a major rebound: revenue expected ~$271M–$282.5M vs $178.6M prior-year quarter; net income expected $60M–$65.4M; adjusted EBITDA ~$98.9M–$109.4M; EPS expected $1.96–$2.14 vs $0.03 prior-year quarter.
Balance sheet improvement: projected net debt as of Dec 31, 2025 expected ~$609M–$631M, down sharply from $1.39B (Sep 2024), which can improve investor confidence.
Regulatory/listing overhang reduced: regained compliance with Nasdaq’s periodic filing rule, improving transparency and reducing immediate delisting-type fear.
increases risk of a retest of support (8.
before any sustained rally.
Latest reported quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue rose to $309.328M (+37.70% YoY), a strong top-line trend. Profitability/earnings: Net income reported $89.068M (listed as -131.10% YoY), and EPS dropped to 0 (-100% YoY). Gross margin listed as 0 (-100% YoY). These figures imply Q3 profitability/quality was weak or impacted by unusual items/accounting presentation. What’s changed most recently (event-driven): The company’s Q4 2025 guidance indicates a sharp profitability recovery versus Q4 2024 (notably EPS $1.96–$2.14 vs $0.03), which is currently the dominant forward-looking fundamental driver versus the mixed Q3 snapshot.
No analyst rating / price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a formal trend read isn’t available here. Wall Street-style pros (based on provided info): sharp Q4 earnings/EBITDA recovery outlook and meaningful net-debt reduction narrative. Wall Street-style cons (based on provided info): legal/investigation headlines and ongoing Nasdaq monitoring/compliance pressure can keep institutions cautious. Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; hedge funds and insiders are also noted as Neutral with no significant recent trend.
