RGLD Should I Buy
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RGLD is NOT a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Despite strong fundamentals and bullish longer-term moving averages, today’s sharp -7.3% drop puts the stock in a near-term breakdown/volatility regime, with price still below the key pivot (~281.9) and short-term momentum weak. With no Intellectia buy signals today and near-term pattern odds skewing slightly negative, the better call is to HOLD/avoid initiating a new position until the stock stabilizes back above the pivot or clearly defends support near ~262.
Trend vs momentum is mixed. Longer-term structure remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but today’s large selloff shifts the immediate trend bearish/unstable. RSI(6) ~38 is near the lower end of neutral (leaning toward oversold but not a clean reversal signal). MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.031) but contracting, which often precedes momentum weakening. Key levels: immediate support is S1 ~262.19 (price 266.07 is uncomfortably close); a break risks a move toward S2 ~249.99. Overhead, the pivot ~281.93 is the main reclaim level; resistance above sits near R1 ~301.68. Net: longer-term uptrend, short-term damage—entry here is low-quality without confirmation.
on 2026-02-18 after hours can act as a catalyst if results/forward commentary confirm continued royalty/streaming cash-flow strength. Precious-metals macro tailwinds are acknowledged by analysts (even some bears raised targets due to gold drivers).
increases the odds of follow-through selling, especially if ~262 support fails (then ~250 becomes likely). Analyst sentiment is mixed-to-cautious with a fresh downgrade (Scotiabank to Sector Perform) and an active Underperform view from BofA; that can cap multiple expansion. No supportive news flow in the last week to explain/offset the selloff. Pattern-based forward odds provided are slightly negative over 1 week to 1 month, aligning with a fragile short-term setup.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth was strong across the board: revenue $252.1M (+30.04% YoY), net income $126.8M (+31.78% YoY), EPS $1.93 (+32.19% YoY). Gross margin improved to 73.53 (+10.54% YoY), indicating improving profitability/quality of earnings. Fundamentally, this supports a longer-term bull thesis, but it does not remove the current short-term technical risk after today’s sharp drawdown.
Recent trend: mixed with a slight negative tilt. Scotiabank (2026-01-26) downgraded to Sector Perform (PT $335), signaling reduced conviction even with a high target. BofA remains Underperform and lifted its PT to ~$265 (now roughly at the current price), implying limited upside in its base case despite acknowledging stronger gold macro drivers. TD Cowen reiterated Buy with PT ~$263 (now slightly below current price), which weakens the immediate upside argument. Wall Street pros: strong gold macro backdrop, scale/cash-flow potential, improved portfolio diversity. Cons: persistent bear coverage (Underperform), and the stock currently needs technical repair before upside targets become actionable. Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available; insider trend is neutral.
