Should I Buy REPX? REPX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Riley Exploration Permian Inc (REPX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

28.510

1 Day change

3.07%

52 Week Range

36.180

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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REPX is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The chart trend is constructive, but options positioning is meaningfully bearish (puts dominating calls) and fundamentals in the latest reported quarter show profit/margin deterioration despite modest revenue growth. With an earnings event upcoming (Q4/FY25), the risk/reward favors waiting rather than buying immediately.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Despite a -1.03% regular-session dip to 27.905, the trend structure remains bullish with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, implying an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0718) but contracting, suggesting bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) at 58.8 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Levels: Pivot support is near 27.759. A clean hold above this area keeps the uptrend intact. Immediate resistance is R1 28.693; a breakout/close above would improve near-term upside odds. Downside support sits at S1 26.825 then S2 26.248. Pattern-based near-term bias: Similar-pattern stats imply slightly positive drift over 1 week (+0.61%) and 1 month (+1.84%), but not strong enough to override the current mixed setup.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Both open interest and (especially) daily volume skew to puts (OI PCR 1.43; Volume PCR 2.4), which is bearish/defensive positioning. Volatility: IV (30D) ~41.95 vs HV ~37.24, but IV percentile is low (6.4) and IV rank is low (3.51), indicating options are relatively cheap versus their own history; this can precede larger moves but does not, by itself, imply direction. Liquidity/flow: Today’s total option volume is small (17 contracts) and below recent averages (today vs 30D avg volume ~80.95), so the bearish read comes more from skew than from heavy activity.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

can act as a catalyst if production/cash-return metrics or guidance surprise positively.
supports the case that dips can be bought by trend-followers.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Options market tone is bearish (puts outweighing calls on both OI and volume), suggesting traders are hedging or positioning for downside.
- Earnings risk: The upcoming Q4/FY25 release could validate the recent profitability decline and pressure the stock if margins/cash flow disappoint.
- Profitability trend (latest reported quarter): Net income, EPS, and gross margin all fell sharply YoY, which can weigh on multiples and sentiment even if revenue grows.
- Positioning/flow: Hedge funds and insiders show no notable positive trend signals recently (neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: 106.852M, +4.41% YoY (modest growth).
Net income: 16.34M, -36.33% YoY (material decline).
EPS: 0.77, -36.36% YoY (material decline).
Gross margin: 42.62, -23.30% YoY (meaningful margin compression). Bottom line: Top-line growth is positive, but profitability and margins are deteriorating—this is a key reason the stock is not an attractive immediate buy ahead of the next earnings catalyst.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend: Limited data—one notable update.

2025-11-21: William Blair initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, citing resilient free cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and upside from power JV and New Mexico gas midstream assets. Wall Street pro/con summary based on the note: Pros: Cash-flow durability even under weaker oil prices; asset/JV optionality; balance sheet strength and shareholder returns. Cons: The recent reported quarter shows declining EPS and margins, which the stock needs to stabilize to justify sustained upside.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast REPX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for REPX is 36 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 27.660

Low

Averages

High

Current: 27.660

Low

Averages

High

William Blair

analyst

Outperform

initiated

AI Analysis

2025-11-21

Reason