REAL Should I Buy
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BUY REAL now for a near-term rebound setup into earnings, despite weak short-term momentum. Price ($14.96) is sitting just above the next key support zone (S2 ~$14.66) after a pullback, while options positioning is notably call-skewed (bullish) and Wall Street targets have been repeatedly raised (multiple $18–$20 targets). This is not a “perfect” entry from a trend-following perspective (MACD is still bearish), but for an impatient buyer the risk/reward is attractive because you’re buying close to support with identifiable upside catalysts (2/26 earnings + continued profitability narrative). Politician/congress activity: none disclosed; hedge funds/insiders: neutral/no notable recent trend.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Short-term trend is pressured: MACD histogram is negative (-0.204) and expanding lower, signaling downside momentum is still present. RSI(6) at ~38.6 is weak but not deeply oversold, consistent with a pullback that may still be finishing. Moving averages are converging, which often precedes a larger directional move; right now the momentum read favors bears, but price is approaching a technical inflection.
Key levels: Pivot ~$16.10 is the line in the sand for regaining bullish control; resistance above sits near ~$17.00 then ~$17.55. Support is close: S1 ~$15.21 (just above current) and S2 ~$14.66 (critical near-term floor). With price at ~$14.96, the stock is trading in the lower end of its recent range, which favors a bounce thesis if S2 holds.
Pattern/stat read provided: the similar-candlestick study implies upside bias over 1-week/1-month horizons (next week +7.07%, next month +76.88% probability of gain per the dataset), reinforcing the bounce/mean-reversion case from near-support.
Earnings catalyst: Q4 and full-year 2025 results on 2026-02-26 after hours; a strong print or guidance can re-rate the stock given the market’s focus on EBITDA improvement.
Analyst momentum: multiple price target raises into $18–$20 with Overweight/Buy/Outperform views emphasizing EBITDA trajectory and sustainable growth.
Business narrative: continued operational efficiency and supply unlock efforts; resale category tailwinds and RealReal’s scale/authentication moat highlighted by coverage.
Market positioning: call-skewed options positioning suggests traders are leaning bullish into the next catalyst window.
Technical weakness: bearish MACD and price below pivot (~$16.
means the stock is still in a short-term down move; support at ~$14.66 must hold to avoid a sharper drop.
Event risk: earnings on 2/26 can trigger large moves; any miss, weaker take-rate/GMV commentary, or margin disappointment could break support.
Profitability still not reached: despite improvement, net income and EPS remain negative; a slowdown in progress could hit sentiment quickly.
Gross margin slight YoY decline in the latest quarter suggests efficiency gains must continue to offset pressure.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Overall: growth is solid and losses are trending better, which supports the bullish analyst thesis (improving EBITDA/profit trajectory), but the company is still in a transition phase where execution matters heavily each quarter.
Analyst trend is clearly improving: from mid/late 2025 through Jan 2026 there were repeated price target increases and favorable commentary following strong Q3 performance and an improving 2026 backdrop. Notable: KeyBanc lifted PT to $20 (Overweight), Wells Fargo to $20 (Overweight; “favorite long ideas”), BTIG to $18 (Buy), B. Riley to $17 (Buy), and William Blair initiated Outperform. The main cautious voice is UBS and Baird maintaining Neutral ratings even while raising targets (UBS to $16; Baird to $15).
Wall Street pros: accelerating revenue growth, evidence of efficiency/EBITDA improvement, category tailwinds in resale, and strengthening confidence in a sustainable model. Wall Street cons: some believe much of the improvement is already priced in (Neutral ratings), and the company remains unprofitable with execution risk around margins and earnings outcomes.
