Should I Buy RCAT? RCAT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

12.630

1 Day change

11.67%

52 Week Range

18.020

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. RCAT just sold off sharply (-11.19% today) and is trading below its near-term support (S1 13.555), while momentum (MACD histogram) is worsening and there are no proprietary buy signals today. Despite longer-term bullish moving averages and bullish options positioning, the near-term tape and insider selling tilt the risk/reward away from buying immediately. I would hold/avoid new buys until price reclaims ~13.55 and starts working back toward the 15.44 pivot with improving momentum.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: RCAT is down hard today (-11.19%) to 13.235, and is now below S1 (13.555). That suggests the prior support level has been lost and the stock is vulnerable to testing S2 (12.389) if selling continues. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.0683 (below zero) and negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum is strengthening in the near term. RSI: RSI(6) at 43.88 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), so there is room for further downside before a classic oversold bounce signal. Moving Averages: The moving average stack is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which supports the idea that the bigger picture trend has been up, but today’s breakdown below S1 is a short-term technical damage signal. Key levels: Pivot 15.443 (major reclaim level), resistance R1 17.331 / R2 18.497; support S1 13.555 (now overhead resistance if not reclaimed quickly) and S2 12.389.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Options positioning is bullish/"risk-on" (open interest put-call ratio 0.32 is call-heavy; volume put-call ratio 0.49 also favors calls). Volatility: Very high HV (~~107.9) and high IV30 (~~112.4) imply the market is pricing large moves; IV percentile 39.6 and IV rank 16.88 suggest IV is elevated in absolute terms but not extreme versus its own recent history. Activity: Today’s options volume (9,314) is well below the 5D/10D averages (~~23.6k/~~21.7k), so while positioning is bullish, there isn’t a fresh surge of speculative flow today to confirm an immediate upside reversal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $22 (from $18), citing scaling ability and positioning in UAS/USV.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

with a sharply negative day increases odds of follow-through selling toward S2 (12.389).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: 9.65M, up +528.54% YoY (strong top-line growth). Net income: -16.02M (still deeply negative), improved +20.11% YoY (less negative, but still large losses). EPS: -0.16, down -11.11% YoY (worsened). Gross margin: 6.61%, down sharply YoY (margin compression is a key concern; scaling is not yet translating into healthy unit economics). Takeaway: The growth story is real on revenue, but the quality of growth (margins) and ongoing losses keep the stock vulnerable during risk-off days.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed but broadly constructive ratings with divergent targets.

2026-01-20: Northland raised PT to $22 (from $18), kept Outperform (more bullish; highlights scalability/positioning).
2025-11-14: Needham lowered PT to $12 (from $17), kept Buy (still positive rating but reduced near-term expectations after guidance cut and delays). Wall Street pro view (pros): Strong revenue momentum; potential to scale in UAS/USV; at least one firm materially increased PT recently. Wall Street con view (cons): Execution/timing risk (delays/guidance issues previously noted) and profitability/margin challenges; targets are not aligned (wide dispersion from $12 to $22), reflecting uncertainty.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast RCAT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RCAT is 15 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 11.310

Low

Averages

High

Current: 11.310

Low

Averages

High

Northland

analyst

maintain

$18 -> $22

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

Northland

analyst

Price Target

$18 -> $22

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Reason

Northland raised the firm's price target on Red Cat to $22 from $18 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Positive preliminary Q4 results prove out Red Cat's ability to rapidly scale, argues the analyst, who calls the company "uniquely positioned as a leading UAS and USV vendor."

Needham

Buy

downgrade

$17 -> $12

2025-11-14

Reason

Needham

Price Target

$17 -> $12

2025-11-14

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Needham lowered the firm's price target on Red Cat to $12 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported strong Q3 results, with record revenues that exceeded Street expectations, but due to the government shutdown and a new product delay, Red Cat lowered 2025 revenue guidance 44% below Street expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds however that while the SRR2 FRP contract is likely pushed out to Q1, the size of the opportunity is unchanged.

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RCAT Should I Buy

RCAT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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