RBLX Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. RBLX is in a clear downtrend and just had a sharp -9.65% regular-session drop to ~$68.67, with bearish momentum still expanding. With no Intellectia buy signals and earnings (QDEC 2025) approaching on 2026-02-05, the risk of further downside/volatility is high for an impatient buyer. The better call is to hold off (avoid new buys) until price stabilizes above support and momentum improves.
Trend/momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend. MACD histogram is negative (-0.228) and negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing.
Overbought/oversold: RSI(6) ~26.9 implies near-oversold conditions (despite the label provided), which can produce bounces, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when MACD is still deteriorating.
Key levels: Immediate support is S1 ~68.07 (price is essentially sitting on it). A clean break below increases odds of a move toward S2 ~62.18. Resistance/pivot overhead is heavy at ~77.61 (pivot) then ~87.15.
Pattern-based short-term odds: Similar-pattern stats imply only modest upside near-term (next day +2.33% probability) but weak week and negative month expectation (next month -6.74%), aligning with the bearish trend.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
• Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (after hours) could reset expectations; several analysts are positioned for “de-risked” 2026 guidance.
• Engagement stabilization datapoint: JPMorgan noted a week where YoY engagement trends did not further moderate, a potentially encouraging near-term sign.
• Fundamental scale/market confidence: News highlights Roblox as one of the largest global gaming companies with ~$4.5B sales last year and a large market cap, supporting the long-duration growth narrative.
• Options skew: Put/call ratios below 1.0 suggest traders are not broadly positioned for heavy downside.
• Strong bearish price action: -9.65% on the day and bearish MA stack + worsening MACD implies sellers still control the tape.
• Event risk into earnings: Elevated IV and unusually high options activity can amplify downside if bookings/DAU/engagement disappoint or guidance is cautious.
• Core concern remains engagement/viral fade: Analysts cite headwinds as viral experiences pass their peaks; messaging and bookings-catalyst uncertainty persists.
• Profitability: News references projected large losses (e.g., ~$1.1B) and prior $1.2B loss (2023), reinforcing margin/profit skepticism.
• Near-term downside level risk: A break below ~68 support opens room toward ~62.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew strongly to ~$1.36B (+47.96% YoY), indicating robust top-line momentum. Losses improved slightly YoY: net income was -$255.6M (about 6.8% better YoY), while EPS remained negative at -$0.37. Gross margin ticked up to ~78.2% (+0.66% YoY), supportive of underlying unit economics, but the company is still meaningfully unprofitable, leaving the stock more sensitive to bookings/engagement and expense/investment guidance.
Recent trend: Ratings are mostly Buy/Overweight/Outperform, but price targets have been cut aggressively across firms (e.g., BTIG $174→$141, Piper $180→$125, Deutsche Bank $140→$115, Wells Fargo $141→$107, Wolfe $150→$100). There is at least one notable Sell view (TD Cowen PT $77→$70) and a key downgrade from JPMorgan to Neutral (PT $145→$100).
Wall Street pros: Long-term secular growth story, monetization/payer trends viewed as relatively healthier than headline engagement, potential product/AI-driven catalysts, and the possibility of a better entry after the Q4 print.
Wall Street cons: Engagement headwinds as viral content cycles normalize, slower bookings growth trajectory, margin pressure from higher investment, and uncertainty around the 2026 catalyst path.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds and insiders are both described as Neutral with no significant recent trend.
