RARE Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. With no Intellectia buy signals, a weak/fragile technical setup around key support, bearish event-driven news overhang from the failed Phase 3 setrusumab trials plus legal-investigation headlines, and short-term downside-biased pattern stats, the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer today. This is an “avoid new entry / hold only if already positioned” setup into the next catalyst (earnings on 2026-02-16).
Price is 23.345 (-3.54% today) and sitting just below the pivot (23.554), suggesting the stock is struggling to reclaim near-term control. RSI(6) at ~40 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), leaving room for further downside before a technical snapback becomes compelling. MACD histogram is above zero (0.455) but positively contracting, which often signals fading upside momentum after a bounce attempt. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than a clean uptrend. Key levels: immediate support S1=22.408 (then S2=21.70); resistance R1=24.70 (then R2=25.408). Given the provided pattern study, odds skew slightly negative (60% chance of -2.25% next day; -1.53% next week), which aligns with a cautious near-term stance.
Revenue base is still growing (Q3’25 revenue +14.65% YoY), and losses narrowed YoY (net loss improved ~35%; EPS improved ~29%), supporting the view that the commercial portfolio has value even after the setrusumab setback. Several sell-side firms remain constructive on the longer-term story (multiple Buy/Overweight ratings), and expense reductions after the trial failure could extend runway. Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings (2026-02-16 after hours) can act as a sentiment reset if guidance/expense discipline and pipeline priorities are well received.
Primary near-term overhang is the Phase 3 ORBIT/COSMIC failure for setrusumab (missed primary endpoint), which drove sharp price-target cuts and reduces confidence in near-term pipeline upside; this also raises regulatory uncertainty since bone density improvements did not translate to fracture reduction. News flow is broadly negative and includes a law firm investigation headline (Levi & Korsinsky), which can further suppress sentiment. Short-term technicals are not signaling a clean reversal, and probabilistic trend stats provided skew modestly bearish over the next day/week/month.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to $159.933M (+14.65% YoY), showing continued top-line growth. Profitability is still deeply negative, but improved YoY: net income increased to -$180.413M (loss narrowed by ~35.12% YoY) and EPS improved to -1.81 (+29.29% YoY). Gross margin fell to 82.5% (-2.86% YoY), a mild deterioration but still very strong for biotech; the key takeaway is growth with improving (though still negative) earnings power. Next major checkpoint is QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-16.
Recent analyst trend: ratings are still mostly positive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform), but price targets were cut materially after the setrusumab Phase 3 failures (e.g., Citi 103→50, Wells 65→45, Guggenheim 64→52, MS 55→50, BofA 72→58, HCW 80→60). Barclays just initiated/assumed coverage at Overweight with a $44 target, indicating some Street belief that the post-drop valuation has become attractive. Wall Street pros: diversified commercial-stage revenue streams, potential pipeline readouts ahead, and potential expense reductions improving runway. Wall Street cons: credibility and sentiment damage from the Phase 3 miss, reduced near-term approval path for setrusumab, and lingering legal/headline risk. Trading activity checks: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
