RAL Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. While the longer-term trend still looks constructive (bullish moving averages and strong sell-side support), near-term momentum is weakening (MACD rolling over, price below pivot) and the next major catalyst is earnings on 2026-02-04, which adds event risk given the most recent quarter’s sharp YoY profit/EPS decline. For an impatient buyer, the odds favor waiting for either (1) a momentum turn (MACD improving and price reclaiming ~53.44 pivot) or (2) a cheaper pullback toward ~52.05/51.19 support before buying.
Trend/structure: The moving average stack is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend remains up. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0878) and negatively expanding, signaling weakening short-term momentum despite the bullish MA structure. RSI(6) ~51.26 is neutral, showing no oversold bounce signal. Levels: Price ~52.81 is below the pivot (53.438), which tilts the immediate bias slightly bearish/defensive. Key support sits at S1 52.046 then S2 51.185; resistance levels are R1 54.83 and R2 55.691. Pattern-based projection provided suggests limited upside near-term (slightly negative next day/week; only marginally positive over a month).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
showed weak profitability trends: net income and EPS down ~56% YoY, which can cap multiple expansion if not explained as one-offs.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue was essentially flat/slightly down (529.1M, -0.49% YoY), but profitability weakened materially: net income 39.9M (-56.11% YoY) and EPS 0.35 (-56.25% YoY). Gross margin also slipped to 50.77% (-3.52% YoY). Overall, the top line is stable, but margins/earnings trend is the key concern to monitor into QDEC 2025 earnings (reported 2026-02-04, after hours; EPS est. 0.67).
Recent trend: Ratings and targets have been moving up and/or initiating positively. Citi upgraded to Buy with PT raised to $61 (from $53). Truist initiated at Buy with $62 PT. Oppenheimer raised PT to $60 and reiterated Outperform. Barclays nudged PT up to $60 and reiterated Overweight. RBC is the more cautious outlier with Sector Perform, though it raised PT to $52.
Wall Street pros: Clear optimism on organic growth visibility, earnings ramp narrative, and exposure to attractive end markets (AI/electrification/grid/defense), with a view that valuation can re-rate toward peers.
Wall Street cons: The main pushback is execution/visibility as a newer spin-off and the need to prove sustainable margin/earnings strength (reflected in the more neutral RBC stance and the latest quarter’s earnings decline).
