RACE Should I Buy
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Buy RACE now as a tactical entry near support with improving downside risk/reward. Price (333.64) is sitting just above S1 (332.416) after a sell-off, RSI(6)=31.7 is washed-out, MACD is still negative but the downside momentum is contracting, and options positioning is skewed bullish (put/call ratios < 1) with elevated activity. While the primary trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), the combination of near-term oversold conditions, supportive options sentiment, and “sell-off is a buying opportunity” news/analyst commentary makes this a favorable impatient entry ahead of the Feb-10 earnings catalyst.
Trend/structure: Bearish alignment of moving averages (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) signals the intermediate trend is still down. Momentum: MACD histogram -0.947 remains below zero (bearish), but is negatively contracting—often consistent with selling pressure fading. RSI: RSI(6)=31.675 is near oversold territory, supporting a bounce setup rather than a momentum short. Levels: Immediate support is S1=332.416 (price is holding just above it). If support holds, mean-reversion targets are Pivot=340.408 then R1=348.399. Pattern-based outlook: Similar-candlestick modeling implies +2.56% over the next week and +8.83% over the next month (with mild next-day drift).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Event setup: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-10 pre-market (Street EPS est. ~2.
can re-rate shares if delivery/margin outlook is steadier than feared.
News tone: Multiple items (2026-01-
frame the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity; emphasis on Ferrari’s scarcity strategy and high-margin lifetime customer monetization by 2030 supports the long-term bull case.
Flows: Hedge funds are buying, with reported buying amount up ~353.7% over the last quarter.
Options: Bullish skew (put/call <
with above-average activity supports near-term rebound odds.
Technical overhang: Bearish moving-average stack (downtrend) means rallies can face supply quickly.
Analyst resets: A cluster of price-target cuts and at least one downgrade (e.g., Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight; Oddo BHF to Neutral) highlights valuation skepticism and concerns around softer early-2026 deliveries and EV-launch perception.
Near-term growth moderation narrative: Commentary suggests growth is weighted to 2H26 and volume discipline limits near-term upside surprises, which can cap multiple expansion.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to 1.766B (+7.40% YoY), EPS 2.14 (+2.88% YoY), net income 381.3M (+1.91% YoY), and gross margin improved to 50.06% (+0.72pp YoY). Takeaway: steady top-line growth with modest earnings growth and improving margin—fundamentally supportive, though not an acceleration story in the near term.
Recent trend: Predominantly still Buy/Overweight/Outperform across several firms, but with widespread price-target cuts (BofA, UBS, Berenberg, RBC, JPM, Barclays, Jefferies) and notable caution via downgrades (Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight; Oddo BHF to Neutral). BNPP upgraded to Outperform, partially offsetting the negative revisions. Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—brand scarcity strategy, pricing power, high-margin personalization/services over time, and disciplined volume. Cons—valuation headwinds, softer early-2026 delivery cadence, and lingering investor skepticism around the first EV impact and near-term growth ceiling. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider activity is reported neutral (no significant recent trend).
