Should I Buy QURE? QURE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Uniqure NV (QURE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

25.650

1 Day change

4.61%

52 Week Range

71.500

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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QURE is not a good buy right now. The stock remains primarily event-driven after the FDA setback on AMT-130, and near-term price probabilities skew negative (model shows higher odds of downside over the next day/week). With no Intellectia buy signal today and elevated uncertainty around the regulatory path/timeline, risk-reward is unattractive for an impatient buyer. Best stance: avoid new buys; if already holding, this is a trim/sell into strength story until a clearer FDA path/catalyst emerges.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Shares are down today (-2.33%) and trading below the pivot (23.637) at ~22.9, which keeps the immediate bias slightly bearish/defensive. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.291) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI: RSI(6) ~51.5 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision rather than a strong trend. Levels: Support S1 22.048 (then S2 21.066). Resistance R1 25.226 (then R2 26.208). A clean reclaim and hold above the pivot/25 area would be needed to improve the technical setup. Pattern-based short-horizon odds: Similar-pattern study indicates ~80% chance of ~-1.93% next day and ~-1.91% next week—near-term drift risk remains to the downside.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.38; volume PCR 0.51), which typically reads as bullish positioning (more calls than puts). Volatility: IV is extremely elevated (30D IV ~~143.8; IV percentile ~81.6) versus already-high historical volatility (~~221), signaling the market is still pricing large moves and uncertainty. Activity: Volume is far above typical (today vs 30D avg volume ~27.7x), consistent with event-driven/speculative trading rather than steady conviction. Takeaway: Options lean call-heavy (bullish tone), but the very high IV suggests traders are paying up for optionality amid unresolved catalysts—this is not “calm” bullish accumulation; it’s high-uncertainty positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Any clarified/constructive FDA feedback (meeting minutes, alignment on a viable registration path) for AMT-130 could re-rate the stock quickly.
Barclays initiated coverage (Equal Weight, $31 PT) with a positive broader biotech 2026 setup, citing undervaluation and M&A tailwinds for the group.
Financial optics improved YoY in 2025/Q3 (revenue growth and narrower losses), which can help sentiment at the margin (though not the main driver).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Core overhang: FDA rejection/insufficient evidence concerns for AMT-130 and uncertainty on the resubmission path/timing—this remains the dominant driver.
Post-event damage: Stock previously fell >50% on the FDA news, indicating broken confidence and ongoing headline sensitivity.
Legal overhang: Kessler Topaz investigation headline can weigh on sentiment.
Financing/R&D flexibility risk: Company indicated fundraising and R&D efforts are affected by the unclear timeline.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $3.70M, +61.83% YoY (strong growth rate, but very small base). Profitability: Net income -$80.53M (loss), improved +81.46% YoY; EPS -$1.38, improved +51.65% YoY—losses are narrowing but still sizable. Margins: Gross margin 89.25% (+61.22% YoY), reflecting favorable mix/recognition but not enough to offset operating burn. Bottom line: Fundamentals are improving on paper, but this remains a pipeline/regulatory-outcome stock; quarter-to-quarter financials are secondary to FDA/clinical path clarity.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings/targets were sharply reset downward after the FDA shift on AMT-130 (multiple target cuts and at least one downgrade to Market Perform). Since then, tone is mixed—some remain constructive on long-term potential but acknowledge higher regulatory risk and delayed timelines. Key changes:

2025-11-04: William Blair downgraded to Market Perform (path now uncertain).
2025-11-03 to 2025-12-11: Multiple firms cut price targets (e.g., Goldman to $38 from $56; RBC to $45 from $65; Mizuho to $33 from $60; Stifel to $40 from $50), generally keeping Neutral/Outperform/Buy depending on firm.
2026-01-27: Barclays initiated Equal Weight with $31 PT (more tempered stance). Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros: Potential for a viable revised regulatory path; some analysts view the selloff as potentially overdone if FDA engagement turns constructive. Cons: Regulatory path/timing uncertainty is the central bear case; probability-of-success assumptions were cut and launch timelines pushed out—limiting near-term conviction and supporting only cautious/neutral positioning for many.

QURE Should I Buy