QDEL Should I Buy
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QDEL is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is technically weak (bearish MACD, price below key pivot) and the latest quarter shows declining revenue and very large reported losses, with no near-term news catalyst. While it’s near support and options positioning is bullish (low put/call), the higher-probability setup is to wait for a clearer trend reversal (e.g., reclaiming the ~$30 pivot) or the 2025 Q4 earnings catalyst on 2026-02-11.
Price/levels: QDEL at 26.9 is sitting just above first support S1=26.443; a break below increases downside risk toward S2=24.138. Upside resistance is the pivot at 30.173 (key level to reclaim), then R1=33.903. Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is -0.796 (below zero) but negatively contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing, not reversed. RSI(6)=31.02 is near oversold territory, consistent with a potential short-term bounce, but not a confirmed trend change. Moving averages are converging, implying consolidation after a decline rather than a clear uptrend. Pattern/short-horizon odds: Similar-pattern stats indicate ~60% probability of modest gains over the next day/week and a stronger 1-month upside skew, but this is best treated as a tactical bounce setup near support, not a durable uptrend signal.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Technical: Price is very close to S1 support (26.
with RSI near oversold, which can fuel a short-term mean-reversion bounce.
Options: Call-heavy positioning/flow (low put/call ratios) supports a bullish near-term sentiment bias.
Analyst note: UBS recently raised its target to $35 (Neutral) citing a strong 2025–2026 respiratory season as a potential tailwind.
Event catalyst: Next earnings (2025 Q
on 2026-02-11 after hours (Street EPS est. ~0.
could re-rate the stock if results/guide are better than feared.
Trend: MACD remains below zero and price is below the key pivot (~30.17), keeping the intermediate trend tilted bearish.
Fundamental optics: Latest quarter shows revenue down YoY and very large reported losses (EPS deeply negative), which can cap multiple expansion until clarity improves.
Street skepticism: JPMorgan maintains an Underweight and cut its target (to $22), characterizing the quarter as “noisy.”
No news-driven support: No meaningful news in the past week to change sentiment near-term.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Recent trend (targets/ratings): Mixed but mostly Neutral overall.
