QCOM Should I Buy
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QCOM is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is technically weak (below pivot with bearish momentum), sentiment is mixed-to-cautious (recent price-target cuts and heavy insider/hedge-fund selling), and a major binary catalyst (earnings on 2026-02-04) is close. While options flow leans bullish near-term and price is close to support, the broader setup favors waiting rather than chasing an entry today.
Price/levels: QCOM at 152.58 is below the pivot (155.432) and sitting just above first support (S1 150.859), with next support at S2 148.034; resistance is 160.004 then 162.829. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-1.095) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing, not reversing yet. RSI(6) at ~24 is deeply oversold (despite the provided label), which can spark bounces, but oversold alone is not a confirmed trend change. Moving averages are converging, consistent with a market trying to base but without a clear bullish turn. Near-term probability stats also skew slightly negative (higher odds of a small drop next day/month).
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Oversold technical condition near S1 (~150.
increases the odds of a short-term bounce if buyers defend support.
Options flow is call-dominant (volume put/call 0.41), supporting near-term rebound expectations.
Earnings on 2026-02-04 (after hours) can serve as a reset catalyst if guidance surprises positively.
News tailwind for semis broadly (AI capex theme) can help the group sentiment, even if not QCOM-specific.
Trend/sentiment headwinds: QCOM is below the pivot and still in a bearish momentum regime (MACD < 0), so rebounds can fail at 155–160 resistance.
Analyst pressure: Multiple recent price-target cuts and Neutral stances (UBS and Mizuho down to $160; Mizuho downgrade to Neutral on handset/iPhone content concerns) cap near-term enthusiasm.
Flow/behavioral: Hedge funds are net selling (selling amount +195% QoQ) and insiders are aggressively selling (+1573% MoM), which is a meaningful sentiment negative.
Competitive narrative: Intensifying competition with MediaTek and broader handset demand concerns into 2026 are recurring themes in recent notes.
Earnings proximity increases event risk; with the stock weak into the print, downside reactions can be sharper if guidance is conservative.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to $11.271B (+10.03% YoY), showing top-line improvement. However, profitability sharply deteriorated: net income was -$3.117B (down -206.75% YoY) and EPS was -2.89 (down -212.02% YoY), with gross margin slipping to 55.34% (-1.86% YoY). In short: growth on revenue, but the quarter shows a major earnings/profitability hit and modest margin compression, which helps explain cautious sell-side tone heading into 2026 handset concerns.
Recent trend: Ratings have shifted more cautious. Mizuho downgraded QCOM to Neutral (from Outperform) and cut targets (to $175, then down to $160), and UBS also cut its target to $160 while staying Neutral. Earlier (2025-11-06) there was a cluster of positive revisions (multiple targets raised to ~$200 and some Buy/Overweight calls), but the more recent updates are predominantly trims and Neutral reiterations.
Wall Street pros: (1) AI/compute mix expansion and stronger Android/premium-tier positioning; (2) prior quarters showed beats and better guidance; (3) longer-term diversification optionality. Wall Street cons: (1) 2026 handset demand risk and potential content headwinds (including iPhone exposure concerns); (2) valuation/target compression; (3) competitive pressure (MediaTek) and mixed confidence into the next cycle.
