PKG Should I Buy
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PKG is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is below its pivot (220.21 vs 222.46) with weakening momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding), recent earnings/guidance were soft, and both insiders and Congress have been net sellers. While moving averages remain bullish and Street targets imply upside, the near-term setup skews to further downside risk, so the best action today is to stay on the sidelines (hold/avoid new buys).
Trend/levels: Price is 220.21 pre-market, below the pivot (222.457), which keeps the immediate bias slightly bearish unless it reclaims ~222.5. Support sits at S1 216.479 (then S2 212.786). Resistance levels are R1 228.436 and R2 232.129. Momentum: MACD histogram -0.311 and negatively expanding signals downside momentum building. RSI(6) 51.6 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal. Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 is structurally bullish, but the negative MACD + price under pivot suggests a pullback within an uptrend rather than a clean breakout entry. Pattern-based forward bias (provided): estimated -8.03% next week and -14.03% next month tilts against buying immediately.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Wall Street tone remains constructive: multiple Buy/Overweight ratings and price targets well above 220 (e.g., Truist $270 Buy; BofA $255 Buy; JPM $245 Overweight; Wells $233 Overweight).
Pricing catalyst: Citi notes potential positive signs ahead of the March price increase; disciplined supply management could support containerboard pricing.
Revenue growth remains positive: Q4 2025 revenue up ~10% YoY to $2.36B, showing demand/revenue resilience even in a choppy tape.
Earnings/guidance disappointment: Q4 adjusted EPS missed expectations and Q1 guidance was described as light—near-term sentiment headwind.
Profitability deterioration: Q4 net income, EPS, and gross margin all fell sharply YoY, suggesting the revenue gain isn’t translating into earnings power right now.
Flow/behavioral red flags: insiders are selling (selling amount up ~858% last month) and Congress activity shows 0 buys vs 4 sells in the last 90 days.
Near-term technical risk: MACD downside expansion and price below pivot increases odds of a test of 216.5/212.8 support before a durable rebound.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to $2.3636B (+10.13% YoY), but profitability weakened materially: Net income $101.1M (-53.96% YoY), EPS $1.13 (-53.88% YoY), and gross margin 18.93% (-13.52% YoY). The key takeaway is that top-line growth is currently being offset by margin/earnings compression, which typically limits how aggressively the stock can be bought immediately after an earnings miss.
Recent trend: Ratings skew positive with several reaffirmed Buys/Overweights and mostly stable-to-higher targets, though there are mixed signals after the Q4 miss.
